Calibrated Probability Assessments: An Introduction

calibrated probability assessments


Although subjective probabilities are relied upon for estimates of key variables in major business decisions, research shows that the subject matter experts who provide these estimates are consistently overconfident.

Fortunately, it can be shown that training significantly improves the ability of experts to quantify their own uncertainty about these estimated values – thus reducing error and increasing the accuracy of your analysis.

the guide

take expert assessments to the next level

Most organizations rely on subjective judgments of probabilities from subject-matter experts on anything from the chance that a project will be completed on time to what next quarter’s revenue will be. That’s not the problem; the problem is that without training, experts will deliver assessments that actually introduce more error than they eliminate. And every percentage of error added to your decision-making process can result in significant costs – and threaten the livelihood of your organization.

In this guide, you’ll learn:


How innate cognitive biases make any expert – even the most knowledgeable ones – prone to error and overconfidence


What the research says about the effectiveness of calibration training and how it measurably improves performance


How calibration training can overcome these biases and give anyone the skills to increase their accuracy

The bottom line: Calibrating assessments will be one of the most critical improvements in the decision processes of most organizations- including yours. Learning how to calibrate your team is one of the quickest, least expensive, and most powerful ways to measurably improve your performance.

Download the guide to get started.

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About Hubbard Decision Research

About Hubbard Decision Research Hubbard Decision Research (HDR) is a risk management consulting firm that applies quantitative analysis methods to the most difficult measurements and challenging decisions across many industries and professions. Using Applied Information Economics, HDR has developed quantitative analysis solutions to information technology investments, military logistics, entertainment media, major policy decisions, and business operations, for clients ranging from small businesses to Fortune 500 companies.

Contact Hubbard Decision Research today to learn more.