This quiz contains a set of problems involving basic statistics, a cost/benefit analysis, and a simulation. Before you begin, open an Excel spreadsheet and save it under the name “HDRtestfirstlastdate” where you replace “first”, “last”, and “date” with your first name, last name, and the date of your test, respectively. You will use that spreadsheet to complete all of the exercises in the quiz. Show your work! Candidates will be evaluated on the number of correct answers and, just as importantly, how professional the spreadsheet looks (formatting, explanations of inputs and outputs, etc.) Assume you are providing these results to one of our clients. The last question in the quiz will ask you to submit your spreadsheet, so make sure you know where it is saved. Good luck!
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Match the pictures below with the correct name for the curve they display.





Suppose you’re trying to determine what percentage of employees at a large corporation take public transportation to get to work. From a random sample of 33 employees, 14 say they do take public transportation. Estimate a 90 percent confidence interval for the proportion of all employees who take public transportation to work. In your spreadsheet, please show your work and explain the formula or method you use.
Select the answer below that best matches the 90% confidence interval you estimated.
Consider the following facts about the detection of a certain disease in human patients:
Compute the probability a person has the disease, given a positive test result. Select the correct answer below and show your work in your spreadsheet.
Assume a quantity has a lognormal distribution with a 90% confidence interval where the lower bound is 50, and the upper bound is 200. Select the answer that matches the formula you would use to create this distribution in Excel.
Then, in your spreadsheet, make a cumulative distribution chart for the lognormal distribution described above.. Make x the horizontal axis and make the vertical axis equal to the probability that the quantity is less than x.
Use the estimates in Table 1 to build a cash flow and compute the NPV for this food cart investment over three years. Use the following assumptions:
Table 1: Estimates for Cash Flow
Variable 
Estimate 
Revenue 

Food purchased (per person) 
$5.49 
Beverages purchased (per person) 
$2.49 
People served per day 
77 
Workdays per year 
244 
Investment/Fixed Costs 

Food Cart Purchase 
$33,000 
Opportunity Cost of Labor (annual) 
$45,000 
License (annual) 
$1,900 
Variable Costs 

Food & drink (per person) 
$3.00 
Utensils (per person) 
$0.19 
Fuel (per day) 
$22.00 
Build a probabilistic cash flow with the 90% confidence interval estimates and the stated distributions in Table 2. You can make a copy of your cash flow model from the previous question to use as a starting point. Then, run a Monte Carlo simulation to generate 1,000 random trials for the NPV of this uncertain food cart investment over four years. Choose the answer below that most closely matches your results to the following questions. Since there is an element of randomness in this question, you will not get the exact same answer.
Table 2: Estimates for Probabilistic Cash Flow
Variable 
Lower Bound 
Upper Bound 
Distribution 
Revenue 

Food purchased (per person) 
$3.75 
$5.44 
Normal 
Beverages purchased (per person) 
$1.69 
$2.56 
Normal 
People served per day 
25 
77 
Normal 
Workdays per year 
235 
265 
Normal 
Investment/Fixed Costs 

Food Cart Purchase 
$18,000 
$35,000 
Lognormal 
Opportunity Cost of Labor (annual) 
$23,000 
$45,000 
Lognormal 
License (annual) 
$900 
$1,800 
Uniform 
Variable Costs 

Food & drink cost (per person) 
$1.95 
$3.45 
Lognormal 
Utensil cost (per person) 
$0.11 
$0.17 
Lognormal 
Fuel (per day) 
$6.00 
$16.00 
Lognormal 
Turn your spreadsheet into a client deliverable. Make sure everything is formatted well, pay attention to labels, and include documentation/notes wherever you think it may be helpful. We are not concerned with your specific style, necessarily, as long as everything is neat and structured.
Please save your spreadsheet with the name “HDRtestfirstlastdate” where “first”, “last”, and “date” are replaced with your first name, last name, and date, respectively.
Upload your answer to this question.
This response will be reviewed and graded after submission.
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