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[null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,"Example and Worksheet Checklist"]
[null,null,null,null,null,null,"\t\nHow To Measure Anything In \nInnovation\n"]
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[null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,"Worksheet: Simple Monte Carlo Solar Example"]
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[null,null,null,null,null,"Hubbard Decision Research"]
[null,null,null,null,null,"2S410 Canterbury Ct"]
[null,null,null,null,null,"Glen Ellyn, IL 60137"]
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{"sheet":"Simple MC WS","index":1,"n_rows":164,"n_cols":1072,"rows_kept":164,"cut":false,"hidden":false,"merged":[[8,20,18,20],[0,0,0,3],[1,0,4,8],[74,0,74,1],[60,0,60,1],[60,2,60,8],[42,6,42,8],[42,2,42,5],[40,0,41,8],[61,2,61,8]]}
["Worksheet: Simple Monte Carlo Solar Example",null,null,null,null,"More calculations to the right.  Un-collapse columns. >>>",null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,"Excel What-If Data Table to Compute Monte Carlo Simulation"]
["This worksheet provides an example of a simple Monte Carlo Model. In this example we model a project that would reduce potential labor costs for an upfront investment. Describe the Variables you want to use in your simulation here.  Each distribution has a \"Shape\" (aka, probability distribution) described in the table below.  Variables declared on this page can be used as random values on the Decision Model Summary table.  Always recalculate by pressing the \"Recalculate\" button in cell I6. after making changes.  Detailed calculations are grouped under hidden columns. Click on \"+\" signs in column headings to ungroup hidden columns. Below one will also find the model results as well as inputs for risk tolerance. "]
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null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,"","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","",null,"","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","",{"$f":"IFERROR(MATCH(MIN(ABS(ANF20:ANX20)),ABS(ANF20:ANX20),0),\"\")","v":""},{"$f":"IFERROR(INDEX(ANF20:ANX20,MIN(MAX(ANY20-1,1),17)),\"\")","v":""},{"$f":"IFERROR(INDEX(ANF20:ANX20,MIN(MAX(ANY20,2),18)),\"\")","v":""},{"$f":"IFERROR(INDEX(ANF20:ANX20,MIN(MAX(ANY20,3),19)),\"\")","v":""},{"$f":"IFERROR(INDEX(AML20:AND20,MIN(MAX(ANY20-1,1),17)),\"\")","v":""},{"$f":"IFERROR(INDEX(AML20:AND20,MIN(MAX(ANY20,2),18)),\"\")","v":""},{"$f":"IFERROR(INDEX(AML20:AND20,MIN(MAX(ANY20,3),19)),\"\")","v":""},""]
[]
[null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,"Normal"]
["Decision Model Summary",null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,"Binary"]
["This decision model calculates the difference between the cost of staying on the grid vs switching to solar power.",null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,"Uniform"]
[null,null,null,"Years",null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,"Lognorm"]
[null,null,{"$f":"2020+Years","v":2020},{"$f":"C26+1","v":2021},{"$f":"D26+1","v":2022},2023,2024,2025,2026,2027,2028,2029,2030,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,"Triangular"]
[null,"Costs",null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,"Constant"]
[null,"Cost of Grid",{"$f":"GridCost+GridCostTrend*Years","v":0.12426435629186272},{"$f":"C28+GridCostTrend","v":0.12713209484467333},0.12999983339748394,0.13286757195029456,0.13573531050310517,0.13860304905591578,0.14147078760872639,0.144338526161537,0.14720626471434761,0.15007400326715822,0.15294174181996883]
[null,"Hours Used",{"$f":"Electricity","v":10058.275013463572},10058.275013463572,10058.275013463572,10058.275013463572,10058.275013463572,10058.275013463572,10058.275013463572,10058.275013463572,10058.275013463572,10058.275013463572,10058.275013463572]
[null,null,{"$f":"C28*C29","v":1249.8850699545776},{"$f":"D28*D29","v":1278.7295729854588},1307.5740760163399,1336.4185790472211,1365.2630820781021,1394.1075851089834,1422.9520881398646,1451.7965911707456,1480.6410942016269,1509.4855972325079,1538.3301002633891]
[]
[null,"PV Units and Installation",{"$f":"(PVUnits*((1+PVCostTrend)^Years))+Install","v":7247.2017609979957}]
[null,"Battery Storage Cost",{"$f":"(StorageCost*((1+StorageCostTrend)^Years))*StorageVolume","v":5894.386059429934}]
[]
[null,"Grid Cost",{"$f":"C30","v":1249.8850699545776},{"$f":"D30","v":1278.7295729854588},1307.5740760163399,1336.4185790472211,1365.2630820781021,1394.1075851089834,1422.9520881398646,1451.7965911707456,1480.6410942016269,1509.4855972325079,1538.3301002633891]
[null,"NPV Grid Cost",{"$f":"NPV(Discount,C35:M35)","v":10308.960569975978}]
[]
[null,"NPV Overall",{"$f":"C36-C32-C33","v":-2832.627250451952}]
[]
["Results Summary"]
["This section shows the output of the simulation in two charts: a histogram of NPVs and a loss exceedance curve.  Certain Monetary Equivalent (CME) is also computed. Enter chart min and increment size to modify how the histogram is displayed."]
[]
[null,null,"Histogram of Simulated NPV"]
[]
["Average NPV",{"$f":"IFERROR(AVERAGE(X7:AMI7), 0)","v":-5936.8889048973315}]
["Average Loss",{"$f":"IFERROR(SUMIF(X7:AMI7,\"<0\")/COUNTIF(X7:AMI7,\"<0\"), 0)","v":-5949.2730301634383}]
["Base EOL",{"$f":"IFERROR(IF(B50=1,-AVERAGEIF(X7:AMI7,\"<=0\")*B48,AVERAGEIF(X7:AMI7,\">=0\")*(1-B48)),0)","v":0.48557920578044694}]
["P(NPV<0)",{"$f":"COUNTIF(X7:AMI7,\"<0\")/1000","v":0.998}]
["CME",{"$f":"IFERROR(-B63*LN(1-AVERAGE(X8:AMI8)), 0)","v":-6504.7919048390904}]
["Default Action (1=Invest)",{"$f":"IF(B45>0,1,0)","v":0}]
["Sum of Individual EVPIs",{"$f":"SUM(J9:J20)","v":0}]
[]
["Chart Min",-20000]
["Increment",1000]
["Chart Max",{"$f":"B53+B54*30","v":10000}]
[]
["The probability of losing more than",-4000]
["is",{"$f":"_xlfn.PERCENTRANK.INC(X7:AMI7,B57,)","v":0.78600000000000003}]
[]
[]
["Constant Absolute Risk Aversion",null,"Data for Graphs"]
[null,null,"The table below ais used to construct the above histogram and loss exceedance tolerance curve. The size of the bins can be changed using the above yellow cells"]
["X",5000,"Increment Midpoint","Increment Lower Bound","Increment Upper Bound","Count less than Upper Bound","Number within Increment","Loss Exceedance Probability","Loss Exceeded"]
["Award","Probability",{"$f":"B53","v":-20000},{"$f":"C64-B$54/2","v":-20500},{"$f":"C64+B$54/2","v":-19500},{"$f":"COUNTIF(X$7:AMI$7,\"<=\"&E64)","v":0},{"$f":"F64","v":0},{"$f":"COUNTIF(X$7:AMI$7,\"<\"&C64)/1000","v":0},{"$f":"-C64","v":20000}]
[2000,0.25,{"$f":"C64+B$54","v":-19000},-19500,-18500,{"$f":"COUNTIF(X$7:AMI$7,\"<=\"&E65)","v":0},{"$f":"F65-F64","v":0},{"$f":"COUNTIF(X$7:AMI$7,\"<\"&C65)/1000","v":0},19000]
["Utility","Certain Monetary Equivalent",-18000,-18500,-17500,{"$f":"COUNTIF(X$7:AMI$7,\"<=\"&E66)","v":0},0,{"$f":"COUNTIF(X$7:AMI$7,\"<\"&C66)/1000","v":0},18000]
[{"$f":"1-EXP(-A65/B63)","v":0.32967995396436067},{"$f":"-B63*LN(1-A67*B65)","v":430.07748425686401},-17000,-17500,-16500,0,0,0,17000]
["Flip a coin…",null,-16000,-16500,-15500,0,0,0,16000]
[null,null,-15000,-15500,-14500,0,0,0,15000]
[null,null,-14000,-14500,-13500,0,0,0,14000]
[null,null,-13000,-13500,-12500,7,7,2E-3,13000]
[null,null,-12000,-12500,-11500,15,8,8.9999999999999993E-3,12000]
["Win $X","Lose $X/2",-11000,-11500,-10500,35,20,2.4E-2,11000]
["Risk Tolerance",null,-10000,-10500,-9500,75,40,5.6000000000000001E-2,10000]
["To use the stated loss exceedance tolerance curve with the loss exceedance curve above fill in a set of loss and probabilities such that the loss at each probability is barely acceptable.",null,-9000,-9500,-8500,125,50,9.9000000000000005E-2,9000]
["Loss (per year)","Acceptable P Loss Exceeded",-8000,-8500,-7500,241,116,0.186,8000]
[1000,0.1,-7000,-7500,-6500,389,148,0.316,7000]
[2000,0.05,-6000,-6500,-5500,553,164,0.47099999999999997,6000]
[10000,0.01,-5000,-5500,-4500,717,164,0.62,5000]
[50000,1E-4,-4000,-4500,-3500,864,147,0.78600000000000003,4000]
[null,null,-3000,-3500,-2500,943,79,0.91,3000]
[null,null,-2000,-2500,-1500,980,37,0.96699999999999997,2000]
[null,null,-1000,-1500,-500,993,13,0.99,1000]
[null,null,0,-500,500,1000,7,0.998,0]
[null,null,1000,500,1500,1000,0,1,-1000]
[null,null,2000,1500,2500,1000,0,1,-2000]
[null,null,3000,2500,3500,1000,0,1,-3000]
[null,null,4000,3500,4500,1000,0,1,-4000]
[null,null,5000,4500,5500,1000,0,1,-5000]
[null,null,6000,5500,6500,1000,0,1,-6000]
[null,null,7000,6500,7500,1000,0,1,-7000]
[null,null,8000,7500,8500,1000,0,1,-8000]
[null,null,9000,8500,9500,1000,0,1,-9000]
[null,null,10000,9500,10500,1000,0,1,-10000]
[null,null,11000,10500,11500,1000,0,1,-11000]
[null,null,12000,{"$f":"C96-B$54/2","v":11500},{"$f":"C96+B$54/2","v":12500},1000,0,1,-12000]
[null,null,{"$f":"C96+B$54","v":13000},12500,13500,1000,0,1,-13000]
[null,null,14000,13500,14500,1000,0,1,-14000]
[null,null,15000,14500,15500,1000,0,1,-15000]
[null,null,16000,15500,16500,1000,0,1,-16000]
[null,null,17000,16500,17500,1000,0,1,-17000]
[null,null,18000,17500,18500,1000,0,1,-18000]
[null,null,19000,18500,19500,1000,0,1,-19000]
[null,null,20000,19500,20500,1000,0,1,-20000]
[null,null,21000,20500,21500,1000,0,1,-21000]
[null,null,22000,21500,22500,1000,0,1,-22000]
[null,null,23000,22500,23500,1000,0,1,-23000]
[null,null,24000,23500,24500,1000,0,1,-24000]
[null,null,25000,24500,25500,1000,0,1,-25000]
[null,null,26000,25500,26500,1000,0,1,-26000]
[null,null,27000,26500,27500,1000,0,1,-27000]
[null,null,28000,27500,28500,1000,0,1,-28000]
[null,null,29000,28500,29500,1000,0,1,-29000]
[null,null,30000,29500,30500,1000,0,1,-30000]
[null,null,31000,30500,31500,1000,0,1,-31000]
[]
[]
[]
[]
[]
[]
[]
[]
[]
[]
[]
[]
[]
[]
[]
[]
[]
[]
[]
[]
[]
[]
[]
[]
[]
[]
[]
[]
[]
[]
[]
[]
[]
[]
[]
[]
[]
[]
[]
[]
[]
[]
[]
[]
[]
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