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Course Description:

This course addresses one of the major known errors in human subject matter expert judgement: overconfidence. You will learn what it means to provide calibrated probability assessments and how to dramatically improve your performance as an estimator. If you have not yet purchased or enrolled in this course, please click here.

How to get started:

Your training will take place in HDR’s dedicated online Calibration Portal. Click here and follow the on screen instructions to get started. 

Course Syllabus


Learn how to assess odds like a bookie.




Self-paced online videos (5) and quizzes (up to 6)

Materials Provided


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How to Measure Anything, Decisions Under Uncertainty, Empirical Methods

Jonathan Murphy is the Director of Consulting Operations for Hubbard Decision Research (HDR). Under this role, Jonathan has become a skilled practitioner of Applied Information Economics, with expertise in applying methods such as Monte Carlo simulation, Bayesian analysis, modern portfolio theory, and many others. He has utilized his knowledge of applied mathematics, probability, and economics to solve a variety of decision and measurement problems for more than a dozen clients.