Big Decisions Blog

The latest news and insights from the team at Hubbard Decision Research
Optimizing Prices for Project Bids

Optimizing Prices for Project Bids

Summary: By measuring how their experts price projects and price elasticity, HDR was able to build our client a pricing model that tripled their operating income. A few years ago, a medium-sized manufacturing firm came to HDR to help redefine how they quote projects....

read more
Calibrating Chat GPT for Its Overconfidence

Calibrating Chat GPT for Its Overconfidence

In a previous article, we measured how calibrated Chat GPT 4 was at providing a 90% confidence interval. During the experiment, after explaining what is meant by a 90% confidence interval, Chat GPT would provide a stated 90% interval that would only contain the actual...

read more
Is ChatGPT as Overconfident as Humans?

Is ChatGPT as Overconfident as Humans?

"It's not what we don’t know that hurts, it’s what we know for sure that just ain't so." The quote above is often attributed to Mark Twain. Ironically, the authorship of this quote being somewhat uncertain, beautifully illustrates the very point it makes....

read more
A Quant’s Approach to Buying vs Renting

A Quant’s Approach to Buying vs Renting

Tab 1…., Tab 2…., Tab 1.., Tab 2. I was anxiously clicking back and forth between two tabs on Zillow.com for the DC area. One shows the “For Sale” homes in a popular young professional neighborhood, and the other “For Rent” in the same area. Two nearly identical...

read more

Newsletter