Big Decisions Blog
The latest news and insights from the team at Hubbard Decision Research
Using LLMs to Generate Models in Excel
Background As a senior quantitative analyst at Hubbard Decision Research, I spend a significant portion of my day creating Monte Carlo simulations to analyze complex investment problems. The process involves decomposing the problem into relevant variables,...
Revolutionizing Agricultural Productivity: Project Prioritization in Crop Science
Client: A Global Leader in Agricultural Sciences Industry: Crop Science Objective: To forecast and prioritize new corn varieties to maximize future product success. Executive Summary Our client, a trailblazer in agricultural sciences, sought to gain a predictive edge...
Strengthening Financial Fortresses: Transformative Cybersecurity Workshops in Banking
Client: An Established Midwestern Financial Institution Industry: Banking Objective: To develop the bank's cybersecurity framework through in-depth workshops, empowering internal teams to manage and improve their cyber risk analysis using HDR's models. Executive...
Revolutionizing Risk Management in the Insurance Sector Through Cybersecurity Assessment
Client: A Global Leader in the Insurance Marketplace Industry: Insurance Objective: To enhance cybersecurity risk management by developing a comprehensive risk and control model tailored for the insurance industry. Executive Summary In a world where cyber threats are...
Optimizing IT Infrastructure for Enhanced Banking Performance
Client: A Leading Silicon Valley-Based Financial Institution Industry: Banking Objective: To conduct a cost-benefit analysis for consolidating data center operations, which involves advanced Monte Carlo models and data-driven dashboards Executive Summary A top-tier...
Optimizing Prices for Project Bids
Summary: By measuring how their experts price projects and price elasticity, HDR was able to build our client a pricing model that tripled their operating income. A few years ago, a medium-sized manufacturing firm came to HDR to help redefine how they quote projects....
Calibrating Chat GPT for Its Overconfidence
In a previous article, we measured how calibrated Chat GPT 4 was at providing a 90% confidence interval. During the experiment, after explaining what is meant by a 90% confidence interval, Chat GPT would provide a stated 90% interval that would only contain the actual...
Is ChatGPT as Overconfident as Humans?
"It's not what we don’t know that hurts, it’s what we know for sure that just ain't so." The quote above is often attributed to Mark Twain. Ironically, the authorship of this quote being somewhat uncertain, beautifully illustrates the very point it makes....
