Big Decisions Blog
The latest news and insights from the team at Hubbard Decision Research
Understanding Research Credibility: HDR Analysts Contribute to SCORE
Systematizing Confidence in Open Research and Evidence (SCORE) was a large collaborative research project designed to improve judgments about scientific credibility in the social and behavioral sciences. Back when Peter and I were psychology professors, we...
Let’s Get Personal: Does Personality Matter for Decision Makers?
Personality is one of the most extensively studied areas in psychology. Personality has a substantial genetic component, is difficult to modify, and tends to be relatively stable across the lifespan (though subtle trait-level changes do occur). Research on personality...
The Role of Calibration in Risk Analysis
HDR's Calibration Training: Team Calibrator - Hubbard Decision ResearchManaging risk requires making decisions under uncertainty, often before complete information is available. One of the most common objections we encounter when working with clients concerns the lack...
Power Law vs. Lognormal Distribution: Which is the Right Choice for My Model?
At Hubbard Decision Research, we’ve built dozens upon dozens of risk models for companies of different sizes across wildly diverse areas. One of the questions we sometimes get from the more quantitatively affluent clients is “Should we use a power law distribution or...
Are Your KPIs Actually KPIs?
In nearly every organization, Key Performance Indicators (KPIs) are a staple of performance tracking and strategy alignment. But how often do we stop to question whether our KPIs are truly key, or even indicators of performance? Was there an analysis done to evaluate...
The Role of Noise in Risk Management
The Role of Noise in Risk Management: A psychologist’s take on an often underappreciated and often misunderstood topic. Prior to working in management consulting, I was a career academic. I taught a variety of psychology courses at a university and conducted cognitive...
Using LLMs to Generate Models in Excel
Background As a senior quantitative analyst at Hubbard Decision Research, I spend a significant portion of my day creating Monte Carlo simulations to analyze complex investment problems. The process involves decomposing the problem into relevant variables, quantifying...
Revolutionizing Agricultural Productivity: Project Prioritization in Crop Science
Client: A Global Leader in Agricultural SciencesIndustry: Crop ScienceObjective: To forecast and prioritize new corn varieties to maximize future product success.Executive SummaryOur client, a trailblazer in agricultural sciences, sought to gain a predictive edge in...
