Calibrated Probability Assessments (CBT and Live Workshop)


During the Calibrated Probability Assessments training, you will learn the techniques behind subjectively assessing the probability of uncertain events and the ranges of uncertain quantities. This is an essential skill for anyone who needs to consider chance in decisions. Participants will see their skills measurably improve during the training with a series of “calibration exams.” This course includes 1 hour delivered via Computer-Based Training (CBT), 2 hours delivered via Live Workshop, Excel templates, and reference material.

How to Sign Up: Select a date for the live webinar component of the training in the drop-down menu below, add to cart, then fill out your order information when you check out. IMPORTANT: Remember to finish the 1 hour of CBT prior to the live workshop.  You will be sent information to access the CBT seven days prior to the live webinar.    If none of the currently listed live webinar dates work for you, see more options in the detailed description.

SKU: CalibrationWebinar001 Categories: ,


Calibration is one of the most powerful and proven ways to improve decision-making. In this Calibration training, participants will learn how to assess subjective probabilities in a way that can be both measured and measurably improved. Each participant will see their ability to assess probabilities improve during a series of exercises where they are required to make estimates of uncertain quantities. Between exercises, they will learn additional techniques to continuously improve each estimate. By the end of the training, participants will see that their assigned probabilities reflect real uncertainty – that is, they are right 80% of the time they are 80% confident, 90% of the time they are 90% confident, and so on. This is a skill that will stick with those who learn it for a long time and will completely change how they think about estimations and probabilistic models.

Scheduling and Deliverables: Each participant will receive an email with instructions to complete the CBT a week before the Live Workshop. Next, the Webex invite for the Live Workshop will be sent the day before the session. Just click on the link to join the Webex on the scheduled day.  After the session, participants will be sent a recording of the live session and will be directed to finish a short final review quiz or exercise on the CBT website.

If none of the dates currently listed for the live webinar work for you: If you can’t make one of the scheduled dates for the live webinar listed below, you can still sign up and receive a recording of the live webinar. All registrants receive a recording of the presentation, even if they can not attend.  If you can’t make one of the currently scheduled dates and prefer a live workshop, email us so we can send you the next set of dates as soon as they become available.

Creating an Account: All CBT modules are delivered via LearnDash in a User account. You’ll be given an option to create a User account upon check out. If you do not create an account at that time (or do not already have one), one will be created for you. You’ll be sent the Username and Password.

Schedule a Private Webinar for Your Organization: We offer private webinar sessions for an organization with special discounted group rates. Contact us for more information and to schedule your next training session.

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Additional information

Live Calibrated Probability Assessments Webinar Dates (Please complete CBT prior to live webinar)

Wednesday, July 22 9:00 am – 11:00 am CDT (UTC-5), Thursday, August 20 Noon – 2:00 pm CDT (UTC-5), Tuesday, September 15 7:00 pm – 9:00 pm CDT (UTC-5)


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