Introducing the One-For-One Substitution Model—a revolutionary tool designed to modernize risk assessment by replacing traditional risk matrices with a quantitative, simulation-based approach. Like the conventional heat map, our model utilizes expert-derived subjective estimates of likelihood and impact.

The One-For-One Substitution Model advances beyond the Risk Matrix by employing clear, probabilistic expressions for likelihood and impact factors, enabling their integration into simulations and quantitative measurement methods. This approach allows for the aggregation of individual risks into a comprehensive portfolio assessment.

With the detailed insights from our simulations, your decision-making process will be grounded in robust statistical data, enhancing both strategy formulation and risk mitigation efforts.

Go beyond the risk matrix and improve your organization’s risk assessment STANDARDS



Move away from subjective, often ambiguous risk ratings to a structured and quantifiable approach.


Input Your Data: Begin by entering the risk or event details into the “Risk Name” column in the first tab. This straightforward input process ensures that the model captures all relevant risks as perceived by your experts.


Define Probability and Impact: For each risk, quantify the probability of occurrence over a period and establish a 90% confidence interval for its potential impact. These forecasts replace vague risk categorizations with actionable data.

Automatic Simulations: Our Power Tool automatically runs 1000 trials and populates the model to aggregate these simulations.

Review the Results: Switch to the “Loss Exceedance Curve” tab to view a detailed risk management dashboard. Monte Carlo simulations illustrates how likely specific losses are, providing a dynamic visual representation of risk exposure.

Get Started Today

This powerful tool is available completely free. It’s not just a resource—it’s an investment in refining your risk management strategy. Equip your team with the One-For-One Substitution Model and turn complex risks into clear, actionable insights.

Download the file now to get started.

Our Company

About Hubbard Decision Research

Hubbard Decision Research Hubbard Decision Research (HDR) is a risk management consulting firm that applies quantitative analysis methods to the most difficult measurements and challenging decisions across many industries and professions. Using Applied Information Economics, HDR has developed quantitative analysis solutions to information technology investments, military logistics, entertainment media, major policy decisions, and business operations, for clients ranging from small businesses to Fortune 500 companies.

Contact Hubbard Decision Research today to learn more.