Risk Modeling and Management

At Hubbard Decision Research we believe that the secret to effective Risk Management is to measure the things that matter.  In an imperfect world, you often can change the risks that are inherent in the actions that you want to take, but you can get a better understanding of your uncertainty and use that information to:

• decide whether to invest in getting more and often times different data
• look for cost effective ways to mitigate those risks or
• assess whether given your level of uncertainty, it makes sense to proceed given your stated risk tolerances.

HDR uses the Applied Information Economics (AIE) framework that was developed by our founder, Douglas W. Hubbard, to help our clients develop Risk Management. This leads to better, more precise, auditable, and unbiased processes and procedures.  (for more information on AIE click here)

The advantage of using AIE over many of the more popular risk methodologies is that it works. In fact, we measure just how much better it works compared to other methods which often are no better – and sometimes even worse –  than risk management by gut feel.

If you want to turn your investment in Risk Management into a competitive advantage, we can help.  For more information, contact us.

Quantitative Decision Analysis

At Hubbard Decision Research, we start with the premise that the secret to effective decision making is understanding that everything and anything can be measured and that by measuring the right things in the right amount, companies can cost effectively reduce uncertainty, allowing them to make critical decisions faster and with greater confidence.

We combine an exceptional ability to find new ways to measure things that often seem immeasurable, together with:

• decomposition techniques that allow us to optimally break down problems into its components
• advanced statistical methods that allow us to make inferences from even extremely small data sets
• Psychological Bias elimination techniques that allow us to compensate for the weaknesses of what is often the most important but also the most imperfect of measurement instruments: human experts

The outcome is a delivery of quantitative models that make it easy for decision makers to properly measure risk and returns and make decisions that are in line with their risk tolerance.

If you think your organization could improve its performance by becoming more quantitative in its decision making, contact us.

Value Measurements of Intangibles

Many organizations make less than optimal and often downright bad decisions because they fail to measure what matters most. This phenomenon is called measurement inversion.  One of the most common reasons companies suffer from measurement inversion is the belief that “intangibles” (e.g., management effectiveness, public image, risk of famine) can’t be measured.  This results in critical factors being left out of the cost benefit, risk, and decision analyses, making them inaccurate, sometimes dangerously so.

Over the last 20 years, Hubbard Decision Research has proven time and time again, that anything and everything can be measured and that the only way to make better more effective decisions is to reduce uncertainty through measurement.   We have helped many of the world’s largest and most respected organizations in both the private and public sector, find ways to measure things that they had previous thought to be unmeasurable, thus helping them to realize their full potential.

If your organization has “intangibles” that it needs measuring, give us a call.  We will help you find effective ways to place a value on it and in the process teach your team how to measure any other intangibles you might need to measure in the future.