How to Make Decisions Under Uncertainty

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Course Description:

This course introduces Monte Carlo models, calculating the value of information, and the importance of quantifying risk tolerance. If you have not yet purchased or enrolled in this course, please click here.

HOW TO GET STARTED:

Scroll down to see the course syllabus and information about your instructor. At the bottom of this page is the list of online modules for this course. Click on the name of the first module to get started, or simply press the “Start Course” button below. Required and optional materials can be downloaded from the “Materials” tab above. Please download the Power Tools spreadsheet and follow along with the examples in the videos. Further instructions are included in the introduction video in the first module.

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Course Syllabus

Objective

To understand how Monte Carlo models can be used to analyze a decision and give insight into planning further measurements as well as comparing the results to a stated risk tolerance.

Prerequisites

None – However, “How to Measure Anything” (either the executive overview or a special topics elective) is suggested.

Format

CBT Modules: 5 (approx. 2 hrs)
Quizzes: 4

Materials Provided

Excel Power Tools: examples and templates for computing information value, quantifying risk tolerance, and running simple simulations
PDF copy of PowerPoint slides

Recommended Next Courses

Calibration, Creating Simulations in Excel, Statistical Measurement Methods Basic & Intermediate

Douglas Hubbard is the inventor of the Applied Information Economics (AIE) method and founder of Hubbard Decision Research (HDR). He is the author of How to Measure Anything: Finding the Value of Intangibles in Business, The Failure of Risk Management: Why It’s Broken and How to Fix It, Pulse: The New Science of Harnessing Internet Buzz to Track Threats and Opportunities and his latest book, How to Measure Anything in Cybersecurity Risk (Wiley, 2016). He has sold over 100,000 copies of his books in eight different languages. Two of his books are required reading for the Society of Actuaries exam prep. In addition to his books, Mr. Hubbard has been published in several periodicals including Nature, The IBM Journal of Research and Development, OR/MS Today, Analytics, CIO, Information Week, and Architecture Boston.

About the Office Hours

Use the form on the right to sign up for office hours. Upon submitting the form, you will receive a confirmation email and a calendar invitation.

This time is reserved for students to come and ask questions about the course or related content and to interact with a live instructor.
There are no prerequisites for attending this session besides being enrolled in the course.
You can book multiple sessions while you are actively enrolled in the course, but please no more than one per week per course.

Note: This service is provided to supplement your online course material; it is not intended to replace any of the recorded content or review quizzes.