This series, delivered via a combination of self-paced Computer-Based Training (CBT) and Live Workshops, gives the participants hands-on training in the use of Applied Information Economics (AIE). AIE is a proven and powerful quantitative analysis method used by Fortune 500 companies, federal and state governments and the U.S. military.
It consists of a total of 22 hours of training delivered in 12 separate modules. This is HDR’s most comprehensive training webinar. Participants will learn how to apply quantitative analysis which measurably improves on expert judgement even in the most complex situations and with limited data. By the end of this training, there will be no “intangible” you can’t measure and you will completely rethink what and how you measure things to support the biggest decisions you make. The modules included are listed below.
Introduction to AIE Academy – Duration 15 minutes CBT
This is a free CBT session which provides an overview of training at HDR.
How to Measure Anything: Principles of Applied Information Economics – Duration: 2 hours CBT, 1 hour Optional Live Workshop
This is the first review of the methods used in Applied Information Economics (AIE). AIE is a decision-making method consisting of a collection of techniques that have each been shown to measurably improve estimates or decisions. This course is geared toward executives that need a conceptual understanding of the process without getting into the details of the quantitative methods involved. This overview covers the following components.
- What the research says about decision making: We will review how published research measured the performance of different methods and concluded that certain quantitative methods outperform them all.
- How to measure anything: We reveal how to overcome a key perceived obstacle to adopting these quantitative methods…the idea that some things just can’t be measured. We explain that the perception of immeasurably is always based on one or more of three reasons, all of which are based on misconceptions.
- Making a practical process: Finally, now that we have shown how quantitative methods can apply even where issues were previously thought to be immeasurable, we show how all the pieces come together. We show the steps in the AIE process, how it has been applied in many industries and surprising ways it changes your decisions.
HTMA: Principles note: All material for the HTMA: Principles course is delivered via CBT. The Optional Live Workshop is for anyone registered to discuss the issues and measurement challenges developed while working in the CBT. Once in the CBT module, you can choose a Live Workshop session (several otions) via Bookings. An email with a calendar appointment containing the Teams invite will be sent.
How to Make Decisions Under Uncertainty – Duration: Approx. 2 hours CBT, 1 hour Optional Live Workshop
How can we make a decision when we are missing so much data and when nobody can predict the future exactly? In this course, we delve into the challenges and benefits of modeling decisions under uncertainty, how we can quantify risk tolerance and how we can compute the the value of information can guide where and how we reduce uncertainty. We find that thinking through decisions this way will change what you measure and how quantifying risks will change your decisions.
DUU note: All material for the DUU course is delivered via CBT. The Optional Live Workshop is for anyone registered to discuss any issues or questions developed while working in the CBT. Once in the CBT module, you can choose a Live Workshop session (several options) via Bookings. An email with a calendar appointment containing the Teams invite will be sent.
Statistical Measurement Methods with Excel: Basic – Duration: 2 hours Live Workshop
This live workshop shows you can perform statistical measurements with ready-made spreadsheet templates. You will learn how to think about measurements from a “Bayesian” perspective which allow you to use new data to update your current uncertainties. The spreadsheet tools will show how useful inferences can be made random sampling even with just a little data. The methods covered will include using simple Bayesian methods to estimate the size, the mean, the median and proportions of a population even if you never get to see a tiny fraction of that population.
Statistical Measurement Methods: Intermediate – Duration: 2 hours Live Workshop
Prerequisite course: Statistical Measurement Methods: Basic
This live webinar builds on the methods covered in Basic version of this course. We cover how we can use controlled experiments and regression models to isolate a particular measurement even when there are lots of other factors affecting the measurement. We show how these methods can use publicly available data to improve forecasts about the economy, diseases and other topics.
Calibrated Probability Assessments – Duration: 3 hours CBT
Calibration is one of the most powerful and proven ways to improve decision-making. In this Calibration training, participants will learn how to assess subjective probabilities in a way that can be both measured and measurably improved. Each participant will see their ability to assess probabilities improve during a series of exercises where they are required to make estimates of uncertain quantities. Between exercises, they will learn additional techniques to continuously improve each estimate. By the end of the training, participants will see that their assigned probabilities reflect real uncertainty – that is, they are right 80% of the time they are 80% confident, 90% of the time they are 90% confident, and so on. This is a skill that will stick with those who learn it for a long time and will completely change how they think about estimations and probabilistic models.
The Calibrated Probability Assessments training is conducted on HDR’s new Calibration Portal. Within 24 hours of placing your HDR order, an email will be sent to you with the portal link, Username and Password. You can then begin any time. Plan on taking 3 to 4 hours to complete the entire session in one sitting. Further instructions will be sent with the registration email.
Creating Simulations in Excel: Basic – Duration Approx. 2 hours CBT, 1 hour Optional Live Workshop
What’s the chance that a project will lose money or be cancelled? What’s the most likely return on investment for a given investment? How likely is a particular risk or set of risks to happen – and how severe could their impacts be?
Running simulations has been shown to measurably improve estimates in uncertain decisions, but how can you run a simulation without complicated software requiring advanced training? This webinar teaches participants how to build a powerful tool – a Monte Carlo simulation that calculates thousands of scenarios – using only Microsoft Excel, with no additional training or software required. Not even coding in Visual Basic for Excel, user-defined functions or new Excel add-ons are needed. We only need native Excel using features that are already installed. Participants will learn how to use a powerful Pseudo Random Number Generator (PRNG) developed by Doug Hubbard. This is a formula that fits in a single cell in Excel and can be used to generate thousands of random values in a way that fools many of the best statistical tests of randomness.
Creating Simulations in Excel: Intermediate – Duration Approx. 2 hours CBT, 1 hour Optional Live Workshop
Prerequisite course: Creating Simulations in Excel: Basic
Building on the methods covered in the Basic course, this course will cover more features of Excel’s what-if data tables for simulations and more probability distributions to cover more real-world types of situations. We will cover more ways to use the powerful HDR multi-dimensional PRNG and how they can be used to generate random time series. We will also show how we can use the same simulations for estimating the value of additional information.
Simulations note: All material for the Simulations courses is delivered via CBT. The Optional Live Workshop is for anyone registered in either Basic or Intermediate who has specific questions about the training or just wants to attend and discuss issues related to simulations in general. Several Optional Live Workshop dates are available to choose from once enrolled in the course.
Elective – Duration 2 hours live workshop
When the Analyst Series order is processed, you will receive a coupon to use for any one of the following webinars:
- HTMA in Cybersecurity Risk
- HTMA in Innovation
- HTMA in Project Management
- The Failure of Risk Management
See those individual product pages to choose your date/time. During check out the coupon will lower the price to $0.00.
Scheduling and Deliverables
CBT Modules: Each participant will receive an email from WordPress with the information needed to complete the self-paced online learning portion of the training.
Please note: All CBT modules (except Calibration) are delivered via LearnDash in a hubbardresearch.com User account. You will be given an option to create a User account upon check out. If you do not create an account at that time (or do not already have one), you will be prompted to create one.
Courses with Live Workshops: Separate emails will be sent 1 day prior to each live session containing the Teams invite.
Following any Live Workshop, each participant will have access to the recording. The presentation and/or spreadsheet can be found under the Materials tab in the LearnDash course.
Would you prefer a private webinar limited to participants from your own organization?
We offer private webinar sessions for an organization with special discounted group rates. Contact us for more information and to schedule your next training session.
Max Disla (verified owner) –
As an individual who has taken extensive training throughout my career in the private sector and the Department of Defense, I must say Hubbard Decision Research’s (HDR) Applied Information Economics (AIE) Analyst Training is a fantastic course.
The key element of this course that made it valuable for me was leveraging the quantitative analysis training immediately after completing the coursework. As I progressed through the course, I would apply them directly to my team’s work. This allowed me to take on and address difficult risk measurement problems for my organization and military customers. Having applied the techniques and training to tackle some risk assessment challenges related to cybersecurity and infrastructure, international supply chains and military readiness I can say with confidence that the methods significantly outperform the risk scoring practices we have habitually used in the past. Specifically, the risk modelling methods had the most pronounced affect on our ability to assess risk in a meaningful and credible way. Risk informed decisions are made faster, approvals for resources are faster and transitioning from planning to executing mitigation activities is much faster. For my team and I, I would say the ability to express return on mitigation in financial terms was the biggest change for us; which is an aspect of our work where my organization has fallen short for many years.
Simply stating that the blended online classwork and live workshops were great vehicles to deliver the training material just doesn’t do the class justice. Having direct interaction with HDR’s instructors and Mr. Hubbard himself was a unique aspect of the class. Instead of generic examples used to convey the material during the workshops Mr. Hubbard would interact with students and use real-world measurement and analysis problems from their own occupations to illustrate methods and concepts.
Another important aspect of the information economics course for me is that the value isn’t limited to just the course itself. In fact, there is a large body of work surrounding the HDR classes including highly regarded books, industry conferences and online presentations. I believe the sum total effect of the coursework, direct access to HDR staff and all the additional resources will boost the performance of any person, team or organization that has to deal with risk and uncertainty while trying to meet objectives and accomplish their mission.