This series, delivered via a combination of self-paced Computer-Based Training (CBT) and Live Workshops, gives the participants hands-on training in the use of Applied Information Economics (AIE). AIE is a proven and powerful quantitative analysis method used by Fortune 500 companies, federal and state governments and the U.S. military.
It consists of a total of 23 hours of training delivered in 15 separate modules. This is HDR’s most comprehensive training webinar. Participants will learn how to apply quantitative analysis which measurably improves on expert judgement even in the most complex situations and with limited data. By the end of this training, there will be no “intangible” you can’t measure and you will completely rethink what and how you measure things to support the biggest decisions you make. The modules included are listed below.
Introduction to AIE Academy – Duration 15 minutes CBT
This is a free CBT session which provides an overview of training at HDR.
How to Measure Anything: Principles of Applied Information Economics – Duration: 2 hours CBT (to be completed before live workshop), 1 hour live workshop
This is the first review of the methods used in Applied Information Economics (AIE). AIE is a decision-making method consisting of a collection of techniques that have each been shown to measurably improve estimates or decisions. This course is geared toward executives that need a conceptual understanding of the process without getting into the details of the quantitative methods involved. This overview covers the following:
- What the research says about decision making – We will review how published research measured the performance of different methods and concluded that certain quantitative methods outperform them all.
- How to measure anything. We reveal how to overcome a key perceived obstacle to adopting these quantitative methods…the idea that some things just can’t be measured. We explain that the perception of immeasurably is always based on one or more of three reasons, all of which are based on misconceptions.
- Making a practical process. Finally, now that we have shown how quantitative methods can apply even where issues were previously thought to be immeasurable, we show how all the pieces come together. We show the steps in the AIE process, how it has been applied in many industries and surprising ways it changes your decisions.
How to Make Decisions Under Uncertainty – Duration: 2 hours live workshop
How can we make a decision when we are missing so much data and when nobody can predict the future exactly? In this webinar, we delve into the challenges and benefits of modeling decisions under uncertainty, how we can quantify risk tolerance and how we can compute the the value of information can guide where and how we reduce uncertainty. We find that thinking through decisions this way will change what you measure and how quantifying risks will change your decisions.
Statistical Measurement Methods with Excel: Basic – Duration: 2 hours live workshop
This live workshop shows you can perform statistical measurements with ready-made spreadsheet templates. You will learn how to think about measurements from a “Bayesian” perspective which allow you to use new data to update your current uncertainties. The spreadsheet tools will show how useful inferences can be made random sampling even with just a little data. The methods covered will include using simple Bayesian methods to estimate the size, the mean, the median and proportions of a population even if you never get to see a tiny fraction of that population.
Statistical Measurement Methods with Excel: Intermediate – Duration: 2 hours live workshop
Prerequisite: Statistical Measurement Methods with Excel: Basic
This live webinar builds on the methods covered in Basic version of this course. We cover how we can use controlled experiments and regression models to isolate a particular measurement even when there are lots of other factors affecting the measurement. We show how these methods can use publicly available data to improve forecasts about the economy, diseases and other topics.
Calibrated Probability Assessments – Duration: 1 hour CBT, 2 hours live workshop
Calibration is one of the most powerful and proven ways to improve decision-making. In this Calibration training, participants will learn how to assess subjective probabilities in a way that can be both measured and measurably improved. Each participant will see their ability to assess probabilities improve during a series of exercises where they are required to make estimates of uncertain quantities. Between exercises, they will learn additional techniques to continuously improve each estimate. By the end of the training, participants will see that their assigned probabilities reflect real uncertainty – that is, they are right 80% of the time they are 80% confident, 90% of the time they are 90% confident, and so on. This is a skill that will stick with those who learn it for a long time and will completely change how they think about estimations and probabilistic models.
Please note: CBT must be completed before attending the Live Workshop. You will be enrolled in the online course within 24 hours of purchase. After completion of the CBT you’ll choose from a list of Live Workshop dates. For Q4, the monthly Live Workshop dates are the Second Tuesday at 4:00 pm US Central and Third Wednesday at 9:00 am US Central. Each session is scheduled for 2 hours.
Advanced Calibration Methods – Duration: 1 hour CBT, 2 hours live workshop
Prerequisite: Calibrated Probability Assessments course
This training module builds on the techniques of the previous calibration training by teaching you how to calibrate others and also how to add even more methods that measurably improve expert estimates. This training includes the following:
- The “why” and “how” behind the calibration procedure
- Using the calibration spreadsheet tools and training material.
- Diagnosing common problems and misconceptions in calibration and responding accordingly
- Performance-weighting methods for aggregating the estimates of multiple experts which measurably outperform other methods
- How to measure and compensate for expert inconsistency using the “Lens” method.
Participants in this training module also receive follow up observation and coaching. An HDR expert will observe calibration training that the participant gives. This session will be scheduled after the Advanced Calibration Methods Live Workshop has been conducted.
Please note: Students registered for Advanced Calibration Methods are enrolled in the CBT course upon completion of the Calibrated Probability Assessments course. The dates for the Adv Cal Live Workshop are chosen directly in the CBT modules. Q4 dates are Friday, November 20 at 9:00 am US Central and Wednesday, December 16 at 5:00 pm US Central.
Creating Simulations in Excel: Basic – Duration Approx. 2 hours CBT, 1 hour Optional Live Workshop
What’s the chance that a project will lose money or be cancelled? What’s the most likely return on investment for a given investment? How likely is a particular risk or set of risks to happen – and how severe could their impacts be?
Running simulations has been shown to measurably improve estimates in uncertain decisions, but how can you run a simulation without complicated software requiring advanced training? This webinar teaches participants how to build a powerful tool – a Monte Carlo simulation that calculates thousands of scenarios – using only Microsoft Excel, with no additional training or software required. Not even coding in Visual Basic for Excel, user-defined functions or new Excel add-ons are needed. We only need native Excel using features that are already installed. Participants will learn how to use a powerful Pseudo Random Number Generator (PRNG) developed by Doug Hubbard. This is a formula that fits in a single cell in Excel and can be used to generate thousands of random values in a way that fools many of the best statistical tests of randomness.
Creating Simulations in Excel: Intermediate – Duration Approx. 2 hours CBT, 1 hour Optional Live Workshop
Prerequisite: Creating Simulations in Excel: Basic
Building on the methods covered in the Basic course, this course will cover more features of Excel’s what-if data tables for simulations and more probability distributions to cover more real-world types of situations. We will cover more ways to use the powerful HDR multi-dimensional PRNG and how they can be used to generate random time series. We will also show how we can use the same simulations for estimating the value of additional information.
Simulations note: All material for the Simulations courses is delivered via CBT. The Optional Live Workshop is for anyone registered in either Basic or Intermediate who has specific questions about the training or just want to attend and discuss issues related to simulations in general. The Q4 Optional Live Workshop times each month are: First Tuesday 10:00 am US Central time, Second Thursday 5:00 pm US Central time and Third Monday 3:00 pm US Central time. Each session is open for one hour. The date is chosen once enrolled in the CBT modules.
Elective – Duration 2 hours live workshop
When the Analyst Series order is processed, you will receive a coupon to use for any one of the following webinars:
- HTMA in Cybersecurity Risk
- HTMA in Innovation
- HTMA in Project Management
- The Failure of Risk Management
See those individual product pages to choose your date/time. When you check out the coupon will lower the price to $0.00.
The AIE Level 1 Certification Exam consists of the following 2 timed sessions:
- 3 hour exam – Multiple Choice (55 questions, 80 minutes) and Short Answer/Essay (17 questions, 100 minutes)
- 2 hour 30 minute exam – Spreadsheet modeling
Both testing sessions are scheduled at the convenience of the candidate. The 2 sessions are conducted on consecutive days. Results are available the first week of the month following the exam. Exams are delivered to you via email with a time limit in which they must be emailed back. Feel free to use all the resources at your disposal – books, notes from webinar sessions, etc.
Candidates must get an 80% aggregate score with no less than 70% on any of the 3 parts.
Scheduling and Deliverables
CBT Modules: Each participant will receive an email from WordPress with the information needed to complete the self-paced online learning portion of the training.
Please note: All CBT modules are delivered via LearnDash in a hubbardresearch.com User account. You will be given an option to create a User account upon check out. If you do not create an account at that time (or do not already have one), you will be prompted to create one.
Courses with Live Workshops: Separate emails will be sent 1 day prior to each live session containing the Webex invite. Just click on the link to join the Webex on the scheduled day.
Following any live workshop, each participant will receive another email with:
- A recording link to the live presentations
- Continued access to the self-paced online training
- The slide deck used in the presentation
- Any spreadsheet tools used in the training
Would you prefer a private webinar limited to participants from your own organization?
We offer private webinar sessions for an organization with special discounted group rates. Contact us for more information and to schedule your next training session.