Calibrated Probability Assessments


NEW FULLY-AUTOMATED, SELF-PACED TRAINING.  You can now measure and improve your skills at subjective estimates of probabilities in the new calibration platform!  During the Calibrated Probability Assessments training, you will learn the techniques behind subjectively assessing the probability of uncertain events and the ranges of uncertain quantities. This is an essential skill for the quantification of uncertainty in decisions. With the new platform, participants will see their skills measurably improve during the training with a series of calibration exercises. Between exercises, instructional videos will reveal useful techniques for refining the skill.  After each exercise your progress will be charted.   

This course includes 3-4 hours of asynchronous training, delivered through HDR’s dedicated Calibration Portal. Once your HDR order is processed, an email will be sent to you with the portal access information.

74 in stock

SKU: Calibration-Asynchronous Categories: ,


Calibration is one of the most powerful and proven ways to improve decision-making. In this Calibration training, participants will learn how to assess subjective probabilities in a way that can be both measured and measurably improved. Each participant will see their ability to assess probabilities improve during a series of exercises where they are required to make estimates of uncertain quantities. Between exercises, they will learn additional techniques to continuously improve each estimate. By the end of the training, participants will see that their assigned probabilities reflect real uncertainty – that is, they are right 80% of the time they are 80% confident, 90% of the time they are 90% confident, and so on. This is a skill that will stick with those who learn it for a long time and will completely change how they think about estimations and probabilistic models.

The Calibrated Probability Assessments training is conducted on HDR’s new Calibration Portal. Within 24 hours of placing your HDR order, an email will be sent to you with the portal link, Username and Password. You can then begin any time. Plan on taking 3 to 4 hours to complete the entire session in one sitting. Further instructions will be sent with the registration email.