Calibration is one of the most powerful and proven ways to improve decision-making. In this Calibration training, participants will learn how to assess subjective probabilities in a way that can be both measured and measurably improved. Each participant will see their ability to assess probabilities improve during a series of exercises where they are required to make estimates of uncertain quantities. Between exercises, they will learn additional techniques to continuously improve each estimate. By the end of the training, participants will see that their assigned probabilities reflect real uncertainty – that is, they are right 80% of the time they are 80% confident, 90% of the time they are 90% confident, and so on. This is a skill that will stick with those who learn it for a long time and will completely change how they think about estimations and probabilistic models.
The Calibrated Probability Assessments training is conducted on HDR’s new Calibration Portal. Within 24 hours of placing your HDR order, an email will be sent to you with the portal link, Username and Password. You can then begin any time. Plan on taking 3 to 4 hours to complete the entire session in one sitting. Further instructions will be sent with the registration email.