Calibration Training

Improve Your Decision-Making with Subjective Probability Assessments

HDR has calibrated thousands of subject matter experts and top decision makers. They represent organizations and professions as varied as government policy, military logistics, project management, cybersecurity, risk management, pharmaceuticals and finance, to name a few.

Discover Hubbard Decision Research’s fully automated, self-paced Calibration Training! Elevate your ability to make subjective probability assessments and improve your decision-making skills with our state-of-the-art calibration platform. This training is essential for anyone involved in quantitative risk analysis, forecasting, or decision-making where uncertainty is a key factor.

Real-World Applications

By the end of the training, you will be able to make estimates where your confidence level reflects real uncertainty. For instance, when you say you are 90% confident, you will be correct 90% of the time.

This skill is crucial for populating real business models with accurate subjective estimates and enhancing the credibility and effectiveness of your organization’s strategic planning and analysis.

Measurable Improvement: Participants will see a significant improvement in their ability to assess probabilities accurately. Surveys indicate that subjective estimates are used in over 80% of stochastic models for business decisions. Yet, without calibration, these estimates often lead to underestimated risks. Our training ensures your assessments are accurate, thereby enhancing the overall quality of your organizational decisions.

The Value of Calibration Training

Calibration training significantly enhances the accuracy of subjective probability assessments, reducing overconfidence and other cognitive biases. This leads to more reliable decision-making and improved outcomes in business, risk analysis, and forecasting.

Learn how to reduce uncertainty with Doug Hubbard.

Course Highlights

  • Self-Paced and Online: Access the training at any time through HDR’s dedicated Calibration Portal.
  • Comprehensive Training: Includes 3-4 hours of asynchronous learning with instructional videos and practical exercises.
  • Immediate Feedback: Track your progress with charted results after each exercise.
  • Proven Techniques: Learn and apply methods to calibrate your probability assessments accurately.

How Do You Manage Uncertainty?

Research-Proven Techniques

Overwhelming research by renowned experts shows that without proper training, individuals are often overconfident in their estimates. This overconfidence can lead to significant underestimation of risks and uncertainties in business decisions.

Essential for Decision Makers

Incorporating calibrated subjective estimates in stochastic models significantly improves their accuracy and reliability. This training is crucial for professionals involved in quantitative risk analysis, investment assessments, project management, and any field requiring precise probability estimations.

The asynchronous training format is self-paced, yet engaging and interactive, ensuring flexibility without sacrificing depth or quality of learning.

Enhance Your Team’s Performance with Corporate Calibration Training

Designed for groups, we offer attractive bulk licensing, making it an excellent choice for corporate training programs. This program is ideal for teams, as it provides a framework that can be seamlessly integrated across various departments within an enterprise.

By training multiple employees, your organization can foster a culture of precision and accountability, connecting different departments under a common standard for assessing and managing uncertainty, leading to better strategic outcomes and reduced overconfidence in business decisions.