Calibration – How to quantify your uncertainty


In this 3-hour webinar you will learn the techniques behind subjectively assessing the probability of uncertain events and the ranges of uncertain quantities. This is an essential skill for anyone who needs to consider chance in decisions. Participants will see their skills measurably improve during the training with a series of “calibration exams.” Price listed is per person and includes the 1-hour AIE Intro session. Please contact HDR directly for group rates.

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Participants will learn how to assess subjective probabilities in a way that can be both measured and measurably improved.  Each participant will see their ability to assess probabilities improve during a series of exercises where they are required to make estimates of uncertain quantities.  Between exercises, they will learn additional techniques to continuously improve each estimate.  By the end of the training, participants will see that their assigned probabilities reflect real uncertainty – that is, they are right 80% of the time they are 80% confident, 90% of the time they are 90% confident, and so on.  This is a skill that will stick with those who learn it for a long time and will completely change how they think about estimations and probabilistic models.

Included in this package is a one-hour session, Introduction to Applied Information Economics: The Need for Better Measurements.

Contact us for information on group rates!

Additional information

AIE Intro Webinar Dates

Monday, November 4 3:00 pm – 4:00 pm CST (UTC-6), Wednesday, November 20 1:00 pm – 2:00 pm CST (UTC-6), Monday, December 9 3:00 pm – 4:00 pm CST (UTC-6)

Webinar Dates for Calibration

Thursday, October 17 9:00 am – Noon CDT (UTC-5), Thursday, November 21 1:00 pm – 4:00 pm CST (UTC-6), Tuesday, December 10 3:00 pm – 6:00 pm CST (UTC-6)


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