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Course Description:

This course addresses one of the major known errors in human subject matter expert judgement: overconfidence. You will learn what it means to provide calibrated probability assessments and how to dramatically improve your performance as an estimator. If you have not yet purchased or enrolled in this course, please click here.

How to get started:

Scroll down to see the course syllabus and information about your instructor. At the bottom of this page is the list of online modules for this course. Click on the name of the first module to get started, or simply press the “Start Course” button below. Required and optional materials can be downloaded from the “Materials” tab above. Further instructions are included in the introduction video in the first module.

Course Syllabus


Learn how to assess odds like a bookie.




  • CBT Modules: 3 (approx. 45 to 90 min)
  • Live Workshops: 1 (2 hr)
  • CBT Quizzes/assignments: 3/1
  • Live Quizzes: 4

Materials Provided

Calibration Exercises Spreadsheet (see Materials tab above)

Recommended Next Courses

How to Measure Anything, Decisions Under Uncertainty, Empirical Methods

Jonathan Murphy is the Director of Consulting Operations for Hubbard Decision Research (HDR). Under this role, Jonathan has become a skilled practitioner of Applied Information Economics, with expertise in applying methods such as Monte Carlo simulation, Bayesian analysis, modern portfolio theory, and many others. He has utilized his knowledge of applied mathematics, probability, and economics to solve a variety of decision and measurement problems for more than a dozen clients.

The Calibration Exercises spreadsheet below is required for participation in this course. If you have any trouble downloading it, please contact your instructor.

Calibration Exercises 30 October 2020