Originally posted on http://www.howtomeasureanything.com/forums/ on Monday, February 16, 2009 11:32:17 AM.

“I am looking for some material (articles or books) on the subject of Calibration. I want to be expert in Calibration.


I certainly support your goal for becoming and expert in this topic. It is a well-studied topic but is still far too obscure in practical applications. Beyond my book, the most important sources are the purely academic literature…which I would definitely recommend for anyone who wants to be an expert. My next book The Failure of Risk Management, will cover this topic with a slightly different emphasis and, in some cases, in more detail. In both books, I resort to several academic studies, including the following.

A key source is Judgment Under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases, Cambridge University Press, 1982. It is a compilation of several research papers on the topic. You can buy this book on Amazon.

Here are several more articles:

A.H. Murphy and R. L. Winker, ‘‘Can Weather Forecasters Formulate Reliable Probability Forecasts of Precipitation and Temperature?,’’ National Weather Digest 2, 1977, 2–9.

D. Kahneman and A. Tversky, ‘‘Subjective Probability: A Judgment of Representativeness,’’ Cognitive Psychology 3, 1972, 430–454.

G.S. Tune, ‘‘Response Preferences: A Review of Some Relevant Literature,’’ Psychological Bulletin 61, 1964, 286–302.

E. Johnson, ‘‘Framing, Probability Distortions and Insurance Decisions,’’ Journal of Risk and Uncertainty 7, 1993, 35.

D. Kahneman and A. Tversky, ‘‘Subjective Probability: A Judgment of Representativeness,’’ Cognitive Psychology 4, 1972, 430–454.

D. Kahneman and A. Tversky, ‘‘On the Psychology of Prediction,’’ Psychological Review 80, 1973, 237–251.

A. Tversky and D. Kahneman, ‘‘The Belief in the ‘Law of Small Numbers,’’’ Psychological Bulletin, 1971.

A. Koriat, S. Lichtenstein, and B. Fischhoff, ‘‘Reasons for Confidence,’’ Journal of Experimental Psychology: Human Learning and Memory 6, 1980, 107–118

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