The book shows that calibrated probability assessments really do work and it gives the reader some idea about how to employ them. But facilitating a workshop – with calibrated estimates or any other formal method – has its own challenges. Participants ask questions or make challenges about calibration or probabilities in general that sometimes confound reason. It’s amazing the sorts of ideas adults have learned about these topics.
Still, I’ve found that these kinds of challenges and my responses to them have become almost scripted over the years. The conceptions and misconceptions people have about these concepts fall into certain general categories and, therefore, so have my responses.
I thought about starting out with an attempt at an exhaustive list but, instead, I’ll wait for readers to come to me. Do you have any challenges employing this method in a workshop or, for that matter, do you have questions of your own about how such a method can work? Let us know and we’ll discuss it.