Big Decisions Blog
The latest news and insights from the team at Hubbard Decision Research
The Role of Noise in Risk Management
The Role of Noise in Risk Management: A psychologist’s take on an often underappreciated and often misunderstood topic. Prior to working in management consulting, I was a career academic. I taught a variety of psychology courses at a university and conducted cognitive...
Using LLMs to Generate Models in Excel
Background As a senior quantitative analyst at Hubbard Decision Research, I spend a significant portion of my day creating Monte Carlo simulations to analyze complex investment problems. The process involves decomposing the problem into relevant variables, quantifying...
Revolutionizing Agricultural Productivity: Project Prioritization in Crop Science
Client: A Global Leader in Agricultural SciencesIndustry: Crop ScienceObjective: To forecast and prioritize new corn varieties to maximize future product success.Executive SummaryOur client, a trailblazer in agricultural sciences, sought to gain a predictive edge in...
Strengthening Financial Fortresses: Transformative Cybersecurity Workshops in Banking
Client: An Established Midwestern Financial Institution Industry: Banking Objective: To develop the bank's cybersecurity framework through in-depth workshops, empowering internal teams to manage and improve their cyber risk analysis using HDR's models. Executive...
Revolutionizing Risk Management in the Insurance Sector Through Cybersecurity Assessment
Client: A Global Leader in the Insurance Marketplace Industry: Insurance Objective: To enhance cybersecurity risk management by developing a comprehensive risk and control model tailored for the insurance industry. Executive Summary In a world where cyber threats are...
Optimizing IT Infrastructure for Enhanced Banking Performance
Client: A Leading Silicon Valley-Based Financial Institution Industry: Banking Objective: To conduct a cost-benefit analysis for consolidating data center operations, which involves advanced Monte Carlo models and data-driven dashboards Executive Summary A top-tier...
Optimizing Prices for Project Bids
Summary: By measuring how their experts price projects and price elasticity, HDR was able to build our client a pricing model that tripled their operating income. A few years ago, a medium-sized manufacturing firm came to HDR to help redefine how they quote projects....
Calibrating Chat GPT for Its Overconfidence
In a previous article, we measured how calibrated Chat GPT 4 was at providing a 90% confidence interval. During the experiment, after explaining what is meant by a 90% confidence interval, Chat GPT would provide a stated 90% interval that would only contain the actual...
