Big Decisions Blog
The latest news and insights from the team at Hubbard Decision Research
Calibrating Chat GPT for Its Overconfidence
In a previous article, we measured how calibrated Chat GPT 4 was at providing a 90% confidence interval. During the experiment, after explaining what is meant by a 90% confidence interval, Chat GPT would provide a stated 90% interval that would only contain the actual...
Is ChatGPT as Overconfident as Humans?
"It's not what we don’t know that hurts, it’s what we know for sure that just ain't so." The quote above is often attributed to Mark Twain. Ironically, the authorship of this quote being somewhat uncertain, beautifully illustrates the very point it makes....
A Quant’s Approach to Buying vs Renting
Tab 1…., Tab 2…., Tab 1.., Tab 2. I was anxiously clicking back and forth between two tabs on Zillow.com for the DC area. One shows the “For Sale” homes in a popular young professional neighborhood, and the other “For Rent” in the same area. Two nearly identical...
Herd Immunity and State Health Departments
Misallocation of Vaccines Leads to 75,000 Additional US Deaths...At Least As we prepare to roll out the vaccine across the United States, we are faced with an unparalleled opportunity. But there is also a danger of squandering the opportunity. States will distinguish...
Doug is Interviewed by Business Security Weekly
Watch the interview with BSW that was previously aired on Tuesday, August 4th at 6:30pm CDT. Doug talks about his ground shaking exposé on the failure of popular cyber risk management methods, How To Measure Anything in Cybersecurity. This particular book is a Palo...
Due to Popular Demand HDR Extends Offer on New AIE Analyst Series
We heard you loud and clear and are happy to accommodate! We are extending our promotional offer on the NEW AIE Analyst Series through Friday, August 28th. Receive a dollar-for-dollar discount of all your previous webinar expenditures with HDR, up to 75% off the price...
HDR Partners with the UK’s Largest Training Provider
HDR is honored to partner with QA. QA is the UK's biggest training provider of virtual, online and classroom training in technology, project management and leadership. HDR will provide a "taster" event on quantifying IT/Cyber Risk on August 19th and August 20th. Day...
What They’re Saying About “The Failure of Risk Management 2E”
The Failure of Risk Management 2E is yet another in a string of very popular publications written by Doug Hubbard. Doug's books are used as textbooks in dozens of prestigious university courses at the graduate level. His first book is required reading for the Society...
