Big Decisions Blog
The latest news and insights from the team at Hubbard Decision ResearchBuzz on the 2nd Edition of HTMA causes Wiley to accelerate release
Wiley has decided to accelerate the release of the second edition of How to Measure Anything. Instead of being released in May, it will be shipped to warehouses this month and ready for sale in early April. Apparently, the book is a source of a lot of positive buzz...
The Measurement Challenge
I'm reintroducing the Measurement Challenge for the blog.  I ran it for a couple of years on the old site and had some very interesting posts. Use this thread to post comments about the most difficult - or even apparently "impossible" - measurements you can...
Can “expert” training increase confidence while making judgments worse?
I came across more interesting research about possible "placebo effects" in decision making. According to the two studies cited below, receiving formal training in lie detection (e.g. so that law enforcement officers are more likely to detect a untruthful statement...
Still no evidence…
I get many emails about the validity of Risk Maps, Risk Scores and Risk Matrices in risk analysis. I know there are a lot of passionate proponents of these methods (and many heavily-invested vendors) but there is still no evidence that such methods improve forecasts...
2010 Spring Webinars are Available
See the webinars page to sign up for intensive training sessions for Applied Information Economics. You can take the popular "Calibration" webinar or even sign up for the full AIE Module I & II training (required for AIE Level I certification). Each webinar is...
You asked for it…the new HTMA Study Guides are out
 We have a new batch of the 4-page, color, laminated reference cards for How to Measure Anything. Some of the material is actually already updated for the upcoming second edition of the book (spring 2010). See the products page for details.
Fall 2009 Analytics Article – Analysis Placebos
The article I co-authored with Doug Samuelson in Analytics Magazine just came out with the fall issue. "Analysis Placebos: The Difference Between Perceived and Real Benefits of Risk Analysis and Decision Models." explains why many popular analysis methods and models...
Analysis Placebos: The Difference Between Perceived and Real Benefits of Risk Analysis and Decision Models
by Douglas Hubbard and Douglas Samuelson Analytics, 10/28/2009 The article I coauthored with Doug Samuelson in Analytics Magazine just came out with the fall issue. “Analysis Placebos: The Difference Between Perceived and Real Benefits of Risk Analysis and Decision...
