Big Decisions Blog

The latest news and insights from the team at Hubbard Decision Research

Challenge Me

As I mentioned in the book, I often offer a sort of measurement challenge to an audience where I'm speaking about measuring the immeasurable. I ask anyone listening to give me an example of an impossible measurement at any time during the conference and, after a 15...

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Facilitating Calibrated Estimates

The book shows that calibrated probability assessments really do work and it gives the reader some idea about how to employ them. But facilitating a workshop - with calibrated estimates or any other formal method - has its own challenges. Participants ask questions or...

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Do you have questions about the content or use of a download?

If you have any questions about the downloads and how they are used for reference in the book, this is the place to post them. The downloads are meant to provide readers with examples that are already set up and, in many cases, can already use on practical problems....

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Intro To IT Value

Yes, IT seems to stump a lot of people that try to measure its value. But the methods for measuring value don't have to be that difficult. First, my readers will know that measuring the value means reducing your prior uncertainty about the value. My readers also know...

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Bayesian vs. Frequentist?

Under the Errata forum in a thread I called Second Print Run Corrections , one poster replied that he believed I incorrectly applied the term confidence interval in the book. I discuss several errors in that post in a reply in that thread. But it introduces another...

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The Value of a Life?

Again, by email and on this site, someone has asked how to measure value when the purpose of a project, policy, investment, etc. is to save a human life. One poster mentioned this in a thread he called Ominus Measurement Problem under the New Measurement Challenge...

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ROI without Profit?

A couple of people have asked me questions about how you measure value when it is for a not-for-profit or government agency. At least one of them posted the question under the New Measurement Challenge section of this forum and some sent similar questions by email. I...

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