2010 Spring Webinars are Available

See the webinars page to sign up for intensive training sessions for Applied Information Economics.  You can take the popular “Calibration” webinar or even sign up for the full AIE Module I & II training (required for AIE Level I certification).  Each webinar is scheduled for multiple dates and times so that you are sure to find something that fits your schedule.  Contact HDR for group rates.

Fall 2009 Analytics Article – Analysis Placebos

The article I co-authored with Doug Samuelson in Analytics Magazine just came out with the fall issue. “Analysis Placebos: The Difference Between Perceived and Real Benefits of Risk Analysis and Decision Models.” explains why many popular analysis methods and models may have entirely illusory benefits. See the online version of the article at http://viewer.zmags.com/publication/2d674a63#/2d674a63/15

OR/MS Today article – The Need for Measurement in Modeling

October 9 article in OR/MS Today by Douglas Hubbard and Douglas Samuelson

“Modeling Without Measurements: How the Decision Analysis Culture’s Lack of Empiricism Reduces Its Effectiveness”

See this article at http://www.lionhrtpub.com/orms/orms-10-09/frrisk.html.

In this article my co-author and I point out a general lack of willingness to measure the actual effectiveness of many quantitative models.  Just as doctors are often the worst patients, quants are often the last to measure their own performance or the performance of the models they create.  We argue that this leads to the unquestioned and continued use of many models that are deeply flawed.  We discuss several sources of those problems and what to do about them.

Welcome and Thank You for Your Patience

Our new consolidated blog and downloads site for the two books – How to Measure Anything and The Failure of Risk Management – was a little problematic for a few new registrants. Anyone who needs to retrieve a forgotten password may run into a problem. If you do have any problems at all, DO NOT HESITATE TO CONTACT me directly at dwhubbard@hubbardresearch.com. Thanks again for your patience.
Douglas W. Hubbard

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