Reversed columns in regression example

On page 173 of the 2nd edition of How to Measure Anything, I show a formula for estimating ratings points of a TV show based on the correlation to weeks spent promoting the show.  The formula shown is actually an estimate of promotion weeks based on ratings points instead of an estimate of ratings points based on promotion weeks.  The correct formula should be

Ratings points = 0.215*promotion weeks + 0.877.

The subsequent estimate of ratings points from 10 weeks of promotions should then be about 0.215*10+0.877 or 3 ratings points.

Doug Hubbard

Tim Peter for Marketing

I talked to someone who has both a vision as well as an impressive track record for marketing.  Tim Peter (www.timpeter.com) describes his services on his website as “proven solutions to improve your e-commerce results and your Internet marketing”.

I came across his site because I got a Google Alert on a flattering review he had written for How to Measure Anything and another review he wrote for Pulse on his blog (so, yes, I might be a bit biased in my review of Tim).  But my first impression was actually when I checked his sites rank on Alexa.com.  Checking the Alexa.com rank is now a habit I have when anyone who asks me for a radio interview, to contribute content in some way, or if I see any review of my books I read in blogs.   I found that for someone who has only been in business for 6 months, his traffic outranks many small SEO and marketing firms.  His traffic also is higher than mine and I’ve been promoting my site and the services described on it for many years.

After confirming his credentials on Alexa, I gave him a call and we talked for a while about his area of expertise.  He seemed to me to have a lot of insight in the issue of webmarketing and he tries to measure it – which, as you know, makes me a fan of what he does.  Check out his site and talk to him if you are looking for that kind of service.

Doug Hubbard

The Impact of “Pulse”

“Information from the Pulse will become part of models that are dynamically simulating and forecasting businesses and the consequences of management decisions … it will have at least the following four types of impact:”

  1. “Decisions based on responses to macro-trends will be faster. We won’t have to wait weeks—and certainly not 15 months as in the NBER report on the end of the recession—for indications of changes in fundamental economic factors, health conditions, and public opinions.”
  2. “In some cases, the Pulse will be more accurate than traditional methods of collecting data about major trends. While the traditional methods like polls will continue to be used to calibrate and validate the Pulse, the Pulse will avoid some problems that plague traditional surveys.”
  3. “Trends that otherwise would not have been seen at all will be visible. Traditional surveys have to be purpose-built. In other words, we have to have an idea of what we are looking for in advance, and then we have to collect that specific data. The Pulse offers a way to see trends that no one even knew to look for when the data was generated.”
  4. “Basic models of society will change. Our ability to investigate and respond to the environment more quickly and accurately has implications for organizational structure, logistics, finance, and virtually every other part of business, government, and the study of humanity. This may be the greatest impact of the Pulse.”

– Hubbard, Douglas W. (2011). Pulse: The New Science of Harnessing Internet Buzz to Track Threats and Opportunities (Kindle Locations 439-453). Wiley. Kindle Edition.

Amazon’s email blast for Pulse

Amazon just sent out its email blast for my next book Pulse: The New Science of Harnessing Internet Buzz to Track Threats and Opportunities. If you get those, you know what I mean (e.g., “If you like book X you will like this new book” etc.). With my previous books, this is usually the beginning of when sales really start to pick up for a new book release.  We’ll see.

Pulse is hitting the shelves

My new book, Pulse: The New Science of Harnessing Internet Buzz to Track Threats and Opportunities, just came in the mail.  Amazon says it is available now and it should be on bookstore shelves in a day or two.

This book seems to generate the most excitement of all of my books so far.   When I explain the idea of using Internet data mining to forecast major economic and social trends, people at the seminars where I speak are universally intrigued.  Sam Savage, author of The Flaw of Averages, told me “This may be your biggest book yet”.  That seemed to be bolstered by the fact that Publisher’s Weekly put Pulse in its “PW’s Top 10: Business & Economics” for the spring of 2011.  So I’m cautiously optimistic.

The book is coming out earlier than the originally planned release, so we are all rushing to make sure the accompanying site is up soon.  It will have a lot of interesting functionality, so be sure to check it out sometime after April 21st.

Doug Hubbard