Course Description:

This course addresses one of the major known errors in human subject matter expert judgement: overconfidence. You will learn what it means to provide calibrated probability assessments and how to dramatically improve your performance as an estimator. If you have not yet purchased or enrolled in this course, please click here.

How to get started:

Your training will take place in HDR’s dedicated online Calibration Portal. Click here and follow the on screen instructions to get started. 

Course Description:

If you have attended HDR’s Calibrated Probability Assessments course and thought your team or organization would benefit from that skill, this is your opportunity. During Advanced Calibration Methods, you will learn how to deliver your own calibration training, compute performance weights for your experts, and eliminate inconsistency from expert estimates. If you are not already registered in the course please click here.

Use the form on the right to register for your live workshop. Each workshop is two hours long and can be completed at any time before or after completion of the CBT modules.

During the live workshop, you will:

• Review Q&A for delivering your own calibration training.
• Discuss in more detail methods for aggregating experts that outperform simply averaging responses.
• See a hands-on example of methods for further reducing expert inconsistency.

 Course Description:

This course introduces additional quantitative methods and includes a dynamic tool for doing multivariate regressions in Excel.  If you have not yet purchased or enrolled in this course, please click here.

Course Description:

This course introduces Bayesian methods and has an in depth analysis of how to make inferences from small samples. This course includes an extensive collection of Excel worksheets for using Bayesian methods. If you have not yet purchased or enrolled in this course, please click here.

Course Description:

This course introduces Monte Carlo models, calculating the value of information, and the importance of quantifying risk tolerance. If you have not yet purchased or enrolled in this course, please click here.

HOW TO GET STARTED:

Scroll down to see the course syllabus and information about your instructor. At the bottom of this page is the list of online modules for this course. Click on the name of the first module to get started, or simply press the “Start Course” button below. Required and optional materials can be downloaded from the “Materials” tab above. Please download the Power Tools spreadsheet and follow along with the examples in the videos. Further instructions are included in the introduction video in the first module.

About the Office Hours

Use the form on the right to sign up for office hours. Upon submitting the form, you will receive a confirmation email and a calendar invitation.

• This time is reserved for students to come and ask questions about the course or related content and to interact with a live instructor.
• There are no prerequisites for attending this session besides being enrolled in the course.
• You can book multiple sessions while you are actively enrolled in the course, but please no more than one per week per course.

Note: This service is provided to supplement your online course material; it is not intended to replace any of the recorded content or review quizzes.

Course Description:

This course provides an overview of several problems with popular risk management practices as well as how to fix them. This course includes slides as well as a simple Monte Carlo spreadsheets for measuring risk. If you have not yet purchased or enrolled in this course, please click here.

Course Description:

This course provides an overview of how to measure and analyze several aspects of innovation. This course includes slides as well as a simple Monte Carlo spreadsheet that can be used to model or value innovation. If you have not yet purchased or enrolled in this course, please click here.

Course Description:

This course provides an overview of how to measure and analyze several aspects of managing projects. This course includes slides as well as a simple Monte Carlo spreadsheet that can be used to measure projects as well as their rate of cancellation. If you have not yet purchased or enrolled in this course, please click here.

Course Description:

This course builds on Creating Simulations in Excel: Basic. You will learn additional tools and techniques to improve your Excel simulations, such as additional distributions and data table methods. If you have not yet purchased or enrolled in this course, please click here.

HOW TO GET STARTED:

Scroll down to see the course syllabus and information about your instructor. At the bottom of this page is the list of online modules for this course. Click on the name of the first module to get started, or simply press the “Start Course” button below. Required and optional materials can be downloaded from the “Materials” tab above. Please download the Int Sims in Excel spreadsheet and follow along with the examples in the videos. Further instructions are included in the introduction video in the first module.

Jonathan Murphy is the Director of Product Management for Hubbard Decision Research (HDR). Under this role, Jonathan has become a skilled practitioner of Applied Information Economics, with expertise in applying methods such as Monte Carlo simulation, Bayesian analysis, modern portfolio theory, and many others. He has utilized his knowledge of applied mathematics, probability, and economics to solve a variety of decision and measurement problems for more than a dozen clients.

If you have any questions about this course, please contact Jonathan at jmurphy@hubbardresearch.com

About the Office Hours

Use the form on the right to sign up for office hours. Upon submitting the form, you will receive a confirmation email and a calendar invitation.

• This time is reserved for students to come and ask questions about the course or related content and to interact with a live instructor.
• There are no prerequisites for attending this session besides being enrolled in the course.
• You can book multiple sessions while you are actively enrolled in the course, but please no more than one per week per course.

Note: This service is provided to supplement your online course material; it is not intended to replace any of the recorded content or review quizzes.

Course Description:

This course provides an overview of how to measure and analyze several aspects of cybersecurity risk. This course includes slides as well as a simple Monte Carlo spreadsheet for measuring cybersecurity risk. If you have not yet purchased or enrolled in this course, please click here.

Course Description:

This course addresses one of the major known errors in human subject matter expert judgement: overconfidence. You will learn what it means to provide calibrated probability assessments and how to dramatically improve your performance as an estimator. If you have not yet purchased or enrolled in this course, please click here.

How to get started:

Scroll down to see the course syllabus and information about your instructor. At the bottom of this page is the list of online modules for this course. Click on the name of the first module to get started, or simply press the “Start Course” button below. Required and optional materials can be downloaded from the “Materials” tab above. Further instructions are included in the introduction video in the first module.

Course Description:

This course describes the three reasons why anyone ever thought anything was immeasurable – and why all three are illusions. If you have not yet purchased or enrolled in this course, please click here.

Douglas Hubbard is the inventor of the Applied Information Economics (AIE) method and founder of Hubbard Decision Research (HDR). He is the author of How to Measure Anything: Finding the Value of Intangibles in Business, The Failure of Risk Management: Why It’s Broken and How to Fix It, Pulse: The New Science of Harnessing Internet Buzz to Track Threats and Opportunities and his latest book, How to Measure Anything in Cybersecurity Risk (Wiley, 2016). He has sold over 170,000 copies of his books in eight different languages. Two of his books are required reading for the Society of Actuaries exam prep. In addition to his books, Mr. Hubbard has been published in several periodicals including Nature, The IBM Journal of Research and Development, OR/MS Today, Analytics, CIO, Information Week, and Architecture Boston.

About the Office Hours

Use the form on the right to sign up for office hours. Upon submitting the form, you will receive a confirmation email and a calendar invitation.

• This time is reserved for students to come and ask questions about the course or related content and to interact with a live instructor.
• There are no prerequisites for attending this session besides being enrolled in the course.
• You can book multiple sessions while you are actively enrolled in the course, but please no more than one per week per course.

Note: This service is provided to supplement your online course material; it is not intended to replace any of the recorded content or review quizzes.

Course Description:

This course introduces the tools and techniques you need to start building basic Monte Carlo simulations in native Excel, without any Visual Basic or special add-ins. If you have not yet purchased or enrolled in this course, please click here.

HOW TO GET STARTED:

Scroll down to see the course syllabus and information about your instructor. At the bottom of this page is the list of online modules for this course. Click on the name of the first module to get started, or simply press the “Start Course” button below. Required and optional materials can be downloaded from the “Materials” tab above. Please download the Basic Sims in Excel spreadsheet and follow along with the examples in the videos. Further instructions are included in the introduction video in the first module.

Jonathan Murphy is the Director of Product Management for Hubbard Decision Research (HDR). Under this role, Jonathan has become a skilled practitioner of Applied Information Economics, with expertise in applying methods such as Monte Carlo simulation, Bayesian analysis, modern portfolio theory, and many others. He has utilized his knowledge of applied mathematics, probability, and economics to solve a variety of decision and measurement problems for more than a dozen clients.

If you have questions about the course, please feel free to contact your instructor at jmurphy@hubbardresearch.com.

About the Office Hours

Use the form on the right to sign up for office hours. Upon submitting the form, you will receive a confirmation email and a calendar invitation.

• This time is reserved for students to come and ask questions about the course or related content and to interact with a live instructor.
• There are no prerequisites for attending this session besides being enrolled in the course.
• You can book multiple sessions while you are actively enrolled in the course, but please no more than one per week per course.

Note: This service is provided to supplement your online course material; it is not intended to replace any of the recorded content or review quizzes.