Advanced Calibration Methods

Course Description:

If you have attended HDR’s Calibrated Probability Assessments course and thought your team or organization would benefit from that skill, this is your opportunity. During Advanced Calibration Methods, you will learn how to deliver your own calibration training, compute performance weights for your experts, and eliminate inconsistency from expert estimates. If you are not already registered in the course please click here.

Course Syllabus

Objective

Learn how to run your own calibration sessions for your organization. 

Prerequisites

Calibrated Probability Assessments

Format

  • CBT Modules: 3 (approx. 1 hr)
  • Live Workshop: 1
  • Audit of one calibration workshop presented by the participant

Materials Provided

  • Spreadsheets for administering tests and recording scores
  • Tools for computing performance weights and eliminating expert inconsistency
  • PDF copy of PowerPoint slides

Recommended Next Courses

Creating Simulations in Excel Basic and Intermediate, Making Decisions Under Uncertainty, Measurement Methods in Excel Basic and Intermediate

Douglas Hubbard is the inventor of the Applied Information Economics (AIE) method and founder of Hubbard Decision Research (HDR). He is the author of How to Measure Anything: Finding the Value of Intangibles in BusinessThe Failure of Risk Management: Why It’s Broken and How to Fix It, Pulse: The New Science of Harnessing Internet Buzz to Track Threats and Opportunities and his latest book, How to Measure Anything in Cybersecurity Risk (Wiley, 2016). He has sold over 100,000 copies of his books in eight different languages.  Two of his books are required reading for the Society of Actuaries exam prep.  In addition to his books, Mr. Hubbard has been published in several periodicals including Nature, The IBM Journal of Research and Development, OR/MS Today, Analytics, CIO, Information Week, and Architecture Boston.

Use the form on the right to register for your live workshop. Each workshop is two hours long and can be completed at any time before or after completion of the CBT modules.

During the live workshop, you will:

  • Review Q&A for delivering your own calibration training.
  • Discuss in more detail methods for aggregating experts that outperform simply averaging responses.
  • See a hands-on example of methods for further reducing expert inconsistency.

 

Statistical Measurement Methods in Excel: Intermediate

 Course Description:

This course introduces additional quantitative methods and includes a dynamic tool for doing multivariate regressions in Excel.  If you have not yet purchased or enrolled in this course, please click here.

Course Syllabus
Objective

To understand and get hands on experience using methods to analyse data and build models. There is an emphasis on regression methods as well as an introduction to the log odds ratio.

Prerequisites

How to Measure Anything, How to Make Decisions Under Uncertainty, and Statistical Measurement Methods in Excel: Basic

Format

  • Live 2 Hour Online Webinar
  • 1 Online Review Quiz

Materials Provided

  • Spreadsheets

Recommended Next Courses

Calibration, Advanced Calibration, Creating Simulations in Excel Basic and Intermediate

Douglas Hubbard is the inventor of the Applied Information Economics (AIE) method and founder of Hubbard Decision Research (HDR). He is the author of How to Measure Anything: Finding the Value of Intangibles in BusinessThe Failure of Risk Management: Why It’s Broken and How to Fix It, Pulse: The New Science of Harnessing Internet Buzz to Track Threats and Opportunities and his latest book, How to Measure Anything in Cybersecurity Risk (Wiley, 2016). He has sold over 100,000 copies of his books in eight different languages.  Two of his books are required reading for the Society of Actuaries exam prep.  In addition to his books, Mr. Hubbard has been published in several periodicals including Nature, The IBM Journal of Research and Development, OR/MS Today, Analytics, CIO, Information Week, and Architecture Boston.

Statistical Measurement Methods in Excel: Basic

Course Description:

This course introduces Bayesian methods and has an in depth analysis of how to make inferences from small samples. This course includes an extensive collection of Excel worksheets for using Bayesian methods. If you have not yet purchased or enrolled in this course, please click here.

Course Syllabus
Objective

To get hands on experience using methods to analyze and make inferences from data. There is an emphasis on Bayesian methods and making inferences from small samples.

Prerequisites

How to Measure Anything and Decisions Under Uncertainty

Format

  • Live 2 Hour Online Webinar
  • 1 Online Review Quiz

Materials Provided

  • Spreadsheets

Recommended Next Courses

Calibration, Advanced Calibration, Creating Simulations in Excel, Statistical Methods in Excel: Intermediate

Douglas Hubbard is the inventor of the Applied Information Economics (AIE) method and founder of Hubbard Decision Research (HDR). He is the author of How to Measure Anything: Finding the Value of Intangibles in BusinessThe Failure of Risk Management: Why It’s Broken and How to Fix It, Pulse: The New Science of Harnessing Internet Buzz to Track Threats and Opportunities and his latest book, How to Measure Anything in Cybersecurity Risk (Wiley, 2016). He has sold over 100,000 copies of his books in eight different languages.  Two of his books are required reading for the Society of Actuaries exam prep.  In addition to his books, Mr. Hubbard has been published in several periodicals including Nature, The IBM Journal of Research and Development, OR/MS Today, Analytics, CIO, Information Week, and Architecture Boston.

How to Make Decisions Under Uncertainty

Course Description:

This course introduces Monte Carlo models, calculating the value of information, and the importance of quantifying risk tolerance. If you have not yet purchased or enrolled in this course, please click here.

HOW TO GET STARTED:

Scroll down to see the course syllabus and information about your instructor. At the bottom of this page is the list of online modules for this course. Click on the name of the first module to get started, or simply press the “Start Course” button below. Required and optional materials can be downloaded from the “Materials” tab above. Please download the Power Tools spreadsheet and follow along with the examples in the videos. Further instructions are included in the introduction video in the first module.

Course Syllabus

Objective

To understand how Monte Carlo models can be used to analyze a decision and give insight into planning further measurements as well as comparing the results to a stated risk tolerance.

Prerequisites

None – However, “How to Measure Anything” (either the executive overview or a special topics elective) is suggested.

Format

  • CBT Modules: 5 (approx. 2 hrs)
  • Quizzes: 4

    Materials Provided

    • Excel Power Tools: examples and templates for computing information value, quantifying risk tolerance, and running simple simulations
    • PDF copy of PowerPoint slides

    Recommended Next Courses

    Calibration, Creating Simulations in Excel, Statistical Measurement Methods Basic & Intermediate

    Douglas Hubbard is the inventor of the Applied Information Economics (AIE) method and founder of Hubbard Decision Research (HDR). He is the author of How to Measure Anything: Finding the Value of Intangibles in BusinessThe Failure of Risk Management: Why It’s Broken and How to Fix It, Pulse: The New Science of Harnessing Internet Buzz to Track Threats and Opportunities and his latest book, How to Measure Anything in Cybersecurity Risk (Wiley, 2016). He has sold over 100,000 copies of his books in eight different languages.  Two of his books are required reading for the Society of Actuaries exam prep.  In addition to his books, Mr. Hubbard has been published in several periodicals including Nature, The IBM Journal of Research and Development, OR/MS Today, Analytics, CIO, Information Week, and Architecture Boston.

    About the Office Hours

    Use the form on the right to sign up for office hours. Upon submitting the form, you will receive a confirmation email and a calendar invitation.

    • This time is reserved for students to come and ask questions about the course or related content and to interact with a live instructor.
    • There are no prerequisites for attending this session besides being enrolled in the course.
    • You can book multiple sessions while you are actively enrolled in the course, but please no more than one per week per course.

    Note: This service is provided to supplement your online course material; it is not intended to replace any of the recorded content or review quizzes.

    NEED HELP? HAVE QUESTIONS ABOUT THE COURSE OR RELATED CONTENT? JOIN AN INSTRUCTOR FOR ONE-ON-ONE OFFICE HOURS!

    The Failure of Risk Management

    Course Description:

    This course provides an overview of several problems with popular risk management practices as well as how to fix them. This course includes slides as well as a simple Monte Carlo spreadsheets for measuring risk. If you have not yet purchased or enrolled in this course, please click here.

    Course Syllabus

    Objective

    Learn the pitfalls of using qualitative methods for measuring risk and learn a set of quantitative measurement methods to replace them.

    Prerequisites

    None

    Format

    • Live 2 Hour Online Webinar
    • 1 Online Review Quiz

    Materials Provided

    • Monte Carlo Tool and Spreadsheets for Measuring Risk
    • PDF copy of PowerPoint slides

    Recommended Next Courses

    Calibration, Creating Simulations in Excel Basic and Intermediate, Making Decisions Under Uncertainty, Measurement Methods in Excel Basic and Intermediate

    Douglas Hubbard is the inventor of the Applied Information Economics (AIE) method and founder of Hubbard Decision Research (HDR). He is the author of How to Measure Anything: Finding the Value of Intangibles in BusinessThe Failure of Risk Management: Why It’s Broken and How to Fix It, Pulse: The New Science of Harnessing Internet Buzz to Track Threats and Opportunities and his latest book, How to Measure Anything in Cybersecurity Risk (Wiley, 2016). He has sold over 100,000 copies of his books in eight different languages.  Two of his books are required reading for the Society of Actuaries exam prep.  In addition to his books, Mr. Hubbard has been published in several periodicals including Nature, The IBM Journal of Research and Development, OR/MS Today, Analytics, CIO, Information Week, and Architecture Boston.

    How to Measure Anything in Innovation

    Course Description:

    This course provides an overview of how to measure and analyze several aspects of innovation. This course includes slides as well as a simple Monte Carlo spreadsheet that can be used to model or value innovation. If you have not yet purchased or enrolled in this course, please click here.

    Course Syllabus

    Objective

    Learn how some common measurement fallacies could be impacting your innovation investments as well as how advanced statistical methods can be used to improve how you manage and forecast innovation. 

    Prerequisites

    None

    Format

    • Live 2 Hour Online Webinar
    • 1 Online Review Quiz

    Materials Provided

    • Monte Carlo Tool and Spreadsheet for Measuring the Value of Innovation
    • PDF copy of PowerPoint slides

    Recommended Next Courses

    Calibration, Creating Simulations in Excel Basic and Intermediate, Making Decisions Under Uncertainty, Measurement Methods in Excel Basic and Intermediate

    Douglas Hubbard is the inventor of the Applied Information Economics (AIE) method and founder of Hubbard Decision Research (HDR). He is the author of How to Measure Anything: Finding the Value of Intangibles in BusinessThe Failure of Risk Management: Why It’s Broken and How to Fix It, Pulse: The New Science of Harnessing Internet Buzz to Track Threats and Opportunities and his latest book, How to Measure Anything in Cybersecurity Risk (Wiley, 2016). He has sold over 100,000 copies of his books in eight different languages.  Two of his books are required reading for the Society of Actuaries exam prep.  In addition to his books, Mr. Hubbard has been published in several periodicals including Nature, The IBM Journal of Research and Development, OR/MS Today, Analytics, CIO, Information Week, and Architecture Boston.

    How to Measure Anything in Project Management

    Course Description:

    This course provides an overview of how to measure and analyze several aspects of managing projects. This course includes slides as well as a simple Monte Carlo spreadsheet that can be used to measure projects as well as their rate of cancellation. If you have not yet purchased or enrolled in this course, please click here.

    Course Syllabus

    Objective

    Learn how some common measurement fallacies could be impacting your projects as well as how advanced statistical methods can be used to improve how you manage and forecast the success of your projects. 

    Prerequisites

    None

    Format

    • Live 2 Hour Online Webinar
    • 1 Online Review Quiz

    Materials Provided

    • Monte Carlo Tool and Spreadsheets for Measuring the Value of Projects
    • PDF copy of PowerPoint slides

    Recommended Next Courses

    Calibration, Creating Simulations in Excel Basic and Intermediate, Making Decisions Under Uncertainty, Measurement Methods in Excel Basic and Intermediate

    Douglas Hubbard is the inventor of the Applied Information Economics (AIE) method and founder of Hubbard Decision Research (HDR). He is the author of How to Measure Anything: Finding the Value of Intangibles in BusinessThe Failure of Risk Management: Why It’s Broken and How to Fix It, Pulse: The New Science of Harnessing Internet Buzz to Track Threats and Opportunities and How to Measure Anything in Cybersecurity Risk (Wiley, 2016). He has sold over 170,000 copies of his books in eight different languages. One of his books is required reading for the Society of Actuaries exam prep. In addition to his books, Mr. Hubbard has been published in several periodicals including Nature, The IBM Journal of Research and Development, OR/MS Today, Analytics, CIO, Information Week, and Architecture Boston.

    Creating Simulations in Excel: Intermediate

    Course Description:

    This course builds on Creating Simulations in Excel: Basic. You will learn additional tools and techniques to improve your Excel simulations, such as additional distributions and data table methods. If you have not yet purchased or enrolled in this course, please click here.

    HOW TO GET STARTED:

    Scroll down to see the course syllabus and information about your instructor. At the bottom of this page is the list of online modules for this course. Click on the name of the first module to get started, or simply press the “Start Course” button below. Required and optional materials can be downloaded from the “Materials” tab above. Please download the Int Sims in Excel spreadsheet and follow along with the examples in the videos. Further instructions are included in the introduction video in the first module.

    Course Syllabus

    Objective

    Learn how to add detail to your Excel simulations with additional distributions, new data table techniques, and methods for estimating information value and quantifying risk tolerance.

    Prerequisites

    Creating Simulations in Excel: Basic

    Format

    • CBT Modules: 4 (approx. 1 to 2 hr)
    • Quizzes/assignments: 3/1

    Materials Provided

    Int Sims in Excel worksheet (see Materials tab above)

    Recommended Next Courses

    Decisions Under Uncertainty, Empirical Methods, Calibrated Probability Assessments

    Jonathan Murphy is the Director of Product Management for Hubbard Decision Research (HDR). Under this role, Jonathan has become a skilled practitioner of Applied Information Economics, with expertise in applying methods such as Monte Carlo simulation, Bayesian analysis, modern portfolio theory, and many others. He has utilized his knowledge of applied mathematics, probability, and economics to solve a variety of decision and measurement problems for more than a dozen clients.

    If you have any questions about this course, please contact Jonathan at jmurphy@hubbardresearch.com

     

    About the Office Hours

    Use the form on the right to sign up for office hours. Upon submitting the form, you will receive a confirmation email and a calendar invitation.

    • This time is reserved for students to come and ask questions about the course or related content and to interact with a live instructor.
    • There are no prerequisites for attending this session besides being enrolled in the course.
    • You can book multiple sessions while you are actively enrolled in the course, but please no more than one per week per course.

    Note: This service is provided to supplement your online course material; it is not intended to replace any of the recorded content or review quizzes.

    NEED HELP? HAVE QUESTIONS ABOUT THE COURSE OR RELATED CONTENT? JOIN YOUR INSTRUCTOR FOR ONE-ON-ONE OFFICE HOURS!

    How to Measure Anything in Cybersecurity Risk

    Course Description:

    This course provides an overview of how to measure and analyze several aspects of cybersecurity risk. This course includes slides as well as a simple Monte Carlo spreadsheet for measuring cybersecurity risk. If you have not yet purchased or enrolled in this course, please click here.

    Course Syllabus

    Objective

    Learn the pitfalls of using qualitative methods for measuring cybersecurity risk and learn a set of quantitative measurement methods to replace them.

    Prerequisites

    None

    Format

    • Live 2 Hour Online Webinar
    • 1 Online Review Quiz

    Materials Provided

    • Monte Carlo Tool and Spreadsheets for Measuring Cybersecurity Risk
    • PDF copy of PowerPoint slides

    Recommended Next Courses

    Calibration, Creating Simulations in Excel Basic and Intermediate, Making Decisions Under Uncertainty, Measurement Methods in Excel Basic and Intermediate

    Douglas Hubbard is the inventor of the Applied Information Economics (AIE) method and founder of Hubbard Decision Research (HDR). He is the author of How to Measure Anything: Finding the Value of Intangibles in BusinessThe Failure of Risk Management: Why It’s Broken and How to Fix It, Pulse: The New Science of Harnessing Internet Buzz to Track Threats and Opportunities and his latest book, How to Measure Anything in Cybersecurity Risk (Wiley, 2016). He has sold over 100,000 copies of his books in eight different languages.  Two of his books are required reading for the Society of Actuaries exam prep.  In addition to his books, Mr. Hubbard has been published in several periodicals including Nature, The IBM Journal of Research and Development, OR/MS Today, Analytics, CIO, Information Week, and Architecture Boston.

    Calibrated Probability Assessments

    Course Description:

    This course addresses one of the major known errors in human subject matter expert judgement: overconfidence. You will learn what it means to provide calibrated probability assessments and how to dramatically improve your performance as an estimator. If you have not yet purchased or enrolled in this course, please click here.

    How to get started:

    Scroll down to see the course syllabus and information about your instructor. At the bottom of this page is the list of online modules for this course. Click on the name of the first module to get started, or simply press the “Start Course” button below. Required and optional materials can be downloaded from the “Materials” tab above. Further instructions are included in the introduction video in the first module.

    Course Syllabus

    Objective

    Learn how to assess odds like a bookie.

    Prerequisites

    None

    Format

    • CBT Modules: 3 (approx. 45 to 90 min)
    • Live Workshops: 1 (2 hr)
    • CBT Quizzes/assignments: 3/1
    • Live Quizzes: 4

    Materials Provided

    Calibration Exercises Spreadsheet (see Materials tab above)

    Recommended Next Courses

    How to Measure Anything, Decisions Under Uncertainty, Empirical Methods

    Jonathan Murphy is the Director of Consulting Operations for Hubbard Decision Research (HDR). Under this role, Jonathan has become a skilled practitioner of Applied Information Economics, with expertise in applying methods such as Monte Carlo simulation, Bayesian analysis, modern portfolio theory, and many others. He has utilized his knowledge of applied mathematics, probability, and economics to solve a variety of decision and measurement problems for more than a dozen clients.

    How to Measure Anything: The Principles of Applied Information Economics

    Course Description:

    This course describes the three reasons why anyone ever thought anything was immeasurable – and why all three are illusions. If you have not yet purchased or enrolled in this course, please click here.

    Course Syllabus

    Objective

    Learn how understanding the concept, object, and methods of measurement can make anything measurable.

    Prerequisites

    None

    Format

    • Modules: 3
    • Live Q&A sessions: 1
    • Quizzes/assignments: 3

    Materials Provided

    PowerPoint slides

    Recommended Next Courses

    Decisions Under Uncertainty, Statistical Measurement Methods: Basic, Creating Simulations in Excel

    Douglas Hubbard is the inventor of the Applied Information Economics (AIE) method and founder of Hubbard Decision Research (HDR). He is the author of How to Measure Anything: Finding the Value of Intangibles in BusinessThe Failure of Risk Management: Why It’s Broken and How to Fix It, Pulse: The New Science of Harnessing Internet Buzz to Track Threats and Opportunities and his latest book, How to Measure Anything in Cybersecurity Risk (Wiley, 2016). He has sold over 170,000 copies of his books in eight different languages. Two of his books are required reading for the Society of Actuaries exam prep. In addition to his books, Mr. Hubbard has been published in several periodicals including Nature, The IBM Journal of Research and Development, OR/MS Today, Analytics, CIO, Information Week, and Architecture Boston.

    About the Office Hours

    Use the form on the right to sign up for office hours. Upon submitting the form, you will receive a confirmation email and a calendar invitation.

    • This time is reserved for students to come and ask questions about the course or related content and to interact with a live instructor.
    • There are no prerequisites for attending this session besides being enrolled in the course.
    • You can book multiple sessions while you are actively enrolled in the course, but please no more than one per week per course.

    Note: This service is provided to supplement your online course material; it is not intended to replace any of the recorded content or review quizzes.

    NEED HELP? HAVE QUESTIONS ABOUT THE COURSE OR RELATED CONTENT? JOIN AN INSTRUCTOR FOR one-on-one office hours!

    Creating Simulations in Excel: Basic

    Course Description:

    This course introduces the tools and techniques you need to start building basic Monte Carlo simulations in native Excel, without any Visual Basic or special add-ins. If you have not yet purchased or enrolled in this course, please click here.

    HOW TO GET STARTED:

    Scroll down to see the course syllabus and information about your instructor. At the bottom of this page is the list of online modules for this course. Click on the name of the first module to get started, or simply press the “Start Course” button below. Required and optional materials can be downloaded from the “Materials” tab above. Please download the Basic Sims in Excel spreadsheet and follow along with the examples in the videos. Further instructions are included in the introduction video in the first module.

    Course Syllabus

    Objective

    Learn how to build Monte Carlo simulations in Excel, utilizing probability distributions and pseudo-random number generators.

    Prerequisites

    None

    Format

    • CBT Modules: 4 (approx. 1 to 3 hr)
    • Quizzes/assignments: 4/1

    Materials Provided

    Basic Sims in Excel worksheet (see Materials tab above)

    Recommended Next Courses

    Intermediate Simulations, Decisions Under Uncertainty, Statistical Measurement Methods: Basic

    Jonathan Murphy is the Director of Product Management for Hubbard Decision Research (HDR). Under this role, Jonathan has become a skilled practitioner of Applied Information Economics, with expertise in applying methods such as Monte Carlo simulation, Bayesian analysis, modern portfolio theory, and many others. He has utilized his knowledge of applied mathematics, probability, and economics to solve a variety of decision and measurement problems for more than a dozen clients.

    If you have questions about the course, please feel free to contact your instructor at jmurphy@hubbardresearch.com.

     

    About the Office Hours

    Use the form on the right to sign up for office hours. Upon submitting the form, you will receive a confirmation email and a calendar invitation.

    • This time is reserved for students to come and ask questions about the course or related content and to interact with a live instructor.
    • There are no prerequisites for attending this session besides being enrolled in the course.
    • You can book multiple sessions while you are actively enrolled in the course, but please no more than one per week per course.

    Note: This service is provided to supplement your online course material; it is not intended to replace any of the recorded content or review quizzes.

    Need help? Have questions about the course or related content? Join your instructor for one-on-one office hours!

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